Trades about to Happen March 15

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“Trades about to happen” gives you trade ideas for stocks ready to move. For each trade idea, i will give you levels to alarm for entry, potential targets, and other key information to glean from the charts.

More About “Trades about to Happen”

The idea behind “Trades about to Happen” is to keep your trading “pond” fully stocked with ideas ready to trigger so you can focus on executing trades rather than sifting through hundreds of charts to find the set ups. Additionally its important to understand I am a technical trader. I do not consider fundamental factors for these set ups. If you incorporate fundamentals into your criteria, simply apply those considerations to the set ups / stocks of interest. When the fundamentals and technicals align, you should have a nice trade set up.

How to leverage “Trades about to Happen”

Not all the set-ups I provide will be appealing to you. For those you are interested in set alarms at either the level I suggest or at a level where you want to be given a “heads up” about the trade. Once your alarm triggers, you can re-focus on the stock and potential trade. Depending on your current portfolio positions, view of the market,  and other factors you may or may not decide to take the trade.  If an alarm triggers and you don’t take the trade, re-set your alarm at a new level where you’d want to take another look.  In this way a stock won’t run away from you without you being aware.

Trades about to Happen

$GRMN  Garmin Daily

Garmin recently reported earnings and popped a massive 17% . Since then price has been consolidating in a tight $2.50 range. To my eye there is $10 of upside on a breakout and $10 of downside on a breakdown.  A really nice opportunity.  All we need to do is set some alarms and wait for price to tell us which way it wants to go.

The Trade

Range Breakout Trade:  Alarm both side of the range. On either a breakout or a breakdown from the range, “go with” the direction of price. Above $84.50 get long against $84 with a stop just below.  The upside measured move target is $94.  Below $82 get short and look for a downside move . T1 = $75.50 at the gap and T2 = $72ish with a gap fill

$PII    Polaris   Daily

Recreational vehicle maker Polaris has been in a persistent downtrend for 8 months. The recent bounce off the December lows was contained by the 61.8% fib level and the downtrend line.  Now price appears to be breaking below key support and the daily pivot with price below all the moving averages.   In the top panel you can see RSI has been pinned below 60 the whole time and is now breaking below 50 which is bearish. PPO momentum is flat to bearish. With the downtrend line so close by, this sets up as a low-risk shot to the downside.

 The Trade

Buy April $85 for about $3.  T1 = $81  T2 = $77.50 with the possibility of the December low if the broad market helps.   Kill the trade if price moves above the downtrend line at about $87- $87.50.    Earnings are scheduled after April expiration.

$AN Auto Nation Weekly

Premier new and used car dealer Auto Nation hit a financial crisis low of around $5. From there it powered out of the hole and peaked in early 2016 at around $65. Since then price chopped around for 2 years before putting in a swing high in the low $50’s in January 2018. After that the wheels came off. Long-time CEO Mike Jackson is gone. The new guy isn’t doing much better. If you look at the chart, price is on the ledge of nothingness. If price loses $32.50 there is literally nothing below; no technical support until $22.50. Fibonacci projections of $24.50 and $20.50 bracket the technical levels.  What i like about the set up is that price already had a bounce off this level. Now its attacking support a second time.  There is a clear line in the sand to shoot against at $33. The indicators are also supportive of lower prices.

The Trade

If price loses $32.50, get short against $33.  Normally I don’t hold through earnings which is in mid -April, but in this case I might make an exception.  I want to target the July 33 Puts currently priced at $2.30 to give this time to work.   Depending on when price triggers, lets see how the trade develops. Earnings are after April expiration.  We can decide what to do as earnings approaches. We can either take it off or leave it on.  There are no sure things in trading but a break of $32.50 is about as objective a short as you’ll ever see.

$CRSP  Crispr Therapeutics   Daily

High flying Biotech stock Crispr has has a wild ride over the past 6 months. In the process, price has traced out a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern that projects an incredible 79% upside with a break above $40.  I am not sure if we can count on 79% but I’d take half of that, wouldn’t you?

The Trade

Set an alarm at $40.50 – $41. With a breakout, get long via calls.  Set a stop just below $40.  My T1 = $48  T2 = $56  T3 = 72.  Of course we’ll need the broad market helping and a good dose of luck, but the pattern is just too damn nice to ignore. Earnings are almost 2 months out so it is not of immediate concern.

$FB Facebook  60 minute chart

Since popping $15 on earnings in late January, Facebook has chopped around in a $12 range and put in 2 failed breakouts. On Thursday March 14, it was announced AH that a couple of long-time key executives are leaving.  Price will open Friday morning in the $167 area.  If you look at the chart there are 3 distinct price tiers.  Tier 1 is $166- $172.  Tier 2 is $166 – $160. Tier 3 is $160 to $150 which is the portion of the earnings gap yet to fill.

If you fashion yourself as a fast money, nimble trader, you might want to watch this one closely and take a shot if price cooperates.

The Trade

$166 is the key price level . If price drops below $166, get short and set a tight stop. I’d target the March 22 or 29 at the money weekly puts.  The first target is $160. If that fails and price enters the gap below $160, there is $10 of additional downside to $150.   I am not interested in going long until price clears $172 with authority.   I’d only advise using lunch money on this type of trade. That said, with the C-suite turbulence and Congressional screws beginning to turn, that $10 gap may get filled sooner than anyone thinks. Would be a nice payday if the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.

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These are ideas and set ups. Please double check when earnings are set to be announced because the earnings reaction has the potential to torpedo any technical set up that may exist.

Also, set you stops according to your own risk tolerance. The ones I have provided are to be used only as a guide. The most important aspect of your stop is to honor them. Some trades work, some don’t. Honoring your stop will ensure your loss on a failed trade will be minimal.

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