Swing Trading Idea: St. Joe’s $JOE

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Tickers discussed: $JOE

The Company Spotlight is focused on a Swing Trading Idea on St. Joe which is a real estate developer focused in the NW Florida panhandle in and around Panama City Beach. Technically, the stock is ready to make a major move.

Companion Video

In the short video, I walk through the company fundaments along with the daily and monthly charts.   Find the video   HERE

St. Joe hits my Radar

I was listening to a podcast a few weeks ago that put St. Joe on my radar.  Although I had heard of them before back in the days when David Einhorn had them on his “obvious short” list, I has not paid attention to them.  What grabs my attention is first and foremost is always the charts.  And for those that know me, Fundamentals are really not my thing, but in this case I wanted to give you a flavor of what St. Joe is all about, so I gathered some info you might find helpful .

As a life-long Floridian, I’ve spent some time in the Florida panhandle in and around Panama City Beach. Beautiful area and beautiful beaches.  When you come to realize that St. Joe’s owns tens of thousands of acres right along the beaches, you don’t have to have much of an imagination to see a gold mine that St. Joe can work for decades.  As demographics continue to favor a migration to the south I don’t think St. Joe will lack a steady stream of buyers for its communities.

About St. Joe

St. Joe is a real estate developer and one of the largest property owners in Florida with around 184,000 acres.  Most of the holdings are in the NW panhandle of Florida in and around Panama City Beach. If you’ve ever had the pleasure of visiting the area, it boasts some of the best beaches Florida has to offer. Much of St. Joe’s real estate holdings are a stone’s throw from the beach.

Unlike other development companies that focus on one demographic, St. Joe believes that diversity among it’s communities brings much more value and vibrancy than simply building a massive retirement community. For instance, it has communities built around golf and others built for nature lovers. Additionally, they cater to a mix of both income and age demographics.  With such vast land holdings they have projects in Hotels, Retail, Light industrial / office, Condos, and of course single family homes.

Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital Management is a major shareholder and is on St. Joe’s Board of Directors.

Land Holding Overview

Most of St. Joe’s holdings are within 10 miles from the beaches.

 

Find out more at their Website:   HERE

History

The roots of the company go back over 100 years to the famed DuPont family.  The company history is littered with controversy and scandal. Its the stuff a good writer could craft a page turning novel. While interesting it doesn’t have anything to do with the charts which is my focus.  If you want to find out more you can start with Wikipedia  HERE

$JOE Daily

After a recent impulsive move from $20 to $27 the stock has been consolidating in a bull flag formation. A break above $27 will trigger the next leg higher. On a measured move basis the target is $32.50

 

$JOE Monthly

Looking at the big picture on the monthly chart, $JOE is just now emerging from a 10 year base.   As famed technician Louise Yamata states “the longer the base, the higher in space”   With RSI and PPO breaking to 14 year highs, obviously something is changing. From the chart, T2 lines up well with the target from the daily chart for the bull flag breakout. Using our principles of the measured move for trading range breaks, the target jumps to $37.50 which is $10 higher from here.  Down the road, I have detailed the other technical targets.

 

Pulling it all together

St. Joe’s sets up both technically and fundamentally as a stock we can potentially trade for years. Remember, the longer the timeframe, the more important the signal. A breakout on the monthly after putting in a 10 year base should not be taken lightly. Traders can choose to either trade this like any other stock, namely level to level, month to month or to look out farther in time and anchor a position and let it grind away.   Still others may want to dive deeper into the fundamentals and financials of the company to inform them about a longer term view of the company for a potential investment.

 

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