Tickers discussed: KRE CFG CFR CMA FHN FITB HBAN KEY OZK PNC SNV TFC ZION
The post discusses swing trade ideas on select names in the Regional Banking sector. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
What are “Objective, Low – Risk ” Trade locations?
Central to my trading process is finding objective, low-risk trading locations. In essence, I want to find trade locations where there is a clean price level to shoot against and where a violation of that line clearly shows me when I am wrong. The low-risk part of the equation is to take a trade close enough to the price level that the reward is at least 3x the risk. Typically this means shorting into resistance, going long at support, going long a breakout, going short on a breakdown etc.
I’ve set these up in a fast read format so specific strategies have been left to you. I am an option trader but I know many are not. If you have a question or need additional input for any of these ideas, please reach out; glad to help.
Lastly, please double check the earnings date date prior to taking any position. Depending on your process you may or may not want to hold through earnings.
Trades about to Happen
$KRE
KRE is the regional banking ETF. I actually got short this one yesterday as I had already had set an alarm. While I have certainly traded individual names in the past, I like using KRE to make a sector wide bet over earnings season or in special situations like we have now. I think the whole sector is going lower and IMO the charts support that. Using KRE also lifts the burden or curse of picking the one name in the group that refuses to go down. You give up some beta using the ETF, but I am ok with that. Additionally the option chain is very liquid with tight spreads.
$CFG
Nice tight set up that has not broken down yet. Alarm $19.75 – $19.50 and wait for the trigger to get short. T1=17 T2 = March low at $15
$CFR
If you want this one you have to get it now. I think its going lower but its getting away from a nearby location to place a stop. Here I think you can shoot against $66
$CMA
Despite a sloppy trading range but IMO heading lower with the group. Look for $28 as a first target and $26 or lower if things really fall apart.
$FHN
Another perfect set up. Take it short on a break of $8. Probably going sub-$7. You can set a stop at $8.25 or so.
$FITB
Nice breakdown. Grab this one quickly if you want it and shoot against $17. Look for $14.50 then $12
$HBAN
Nice set up on this emerging breakdown from the bear flag. Shoot against $8 with a stop about $8.25. IMO going to $7 or lower
$KEY
Not a perfect set up because the stop is getting far away. Price is below all the averages. About as bearish as it gets. Heading lower. T1=$9.50 T2 = $8
$OZK
Perfect set up. Alarm $20 and then wait for the trigger and hit it. T1=18.50 T2= 15.50
$PNC
Another tight set up on the emerging breakdown. Anything below $104 is bearish. $20 of potential downside but you’d be happy with $10 right?
$SNV
With a stop $2 away and a target $6 away, this barely meets the 3:1 risk / reward ratio i shoot for. I think there are other set ups that are more objective and lower risk.
$TFC
Take this one quick if you like it. $4 of downside potential to T1 at $29 with about $1 of risk. I like this one.
$ZION
I think we’re a day late on this one. You can alarm $29 for a potential rally, then hit it short. That would really tighten up the set up and lower your risk.
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