Tickers Discussed: OKTA, SBUX, NTNX, BOOT, CRWD, CVNA, KEY, GOOGL
These stock market swing trade ideas are either immediately actionable or near actionable set ups with triggers near by. For each trade idea, I give you levels to alarm for entry, potential targets, and other key information to glean from the charts.
What are “Objective, Low – Risk ” Trade locations?
Central to my trading process is finding objective, low-risk trading locations. In essence, I want to find trade locations where there is a clean price level to shoot against and where a violation of that line clearly shows me when I am wrong. The low-risk part of the equation is to take a trade close enough to the price level that the reward is at least 3x the risk. Typically this means shorting into resistance, going long at support, going long a breakout, going short on a breakdown etc.
I’ve set these up in a fast read format so specific strategies have been left to you. I am an option trader but I know many are not. If you have a question or need additional input for any of these ideas, please reach out; glad to help.
Lastly, please double check the earnings date date prior to taking any position. Depending on your process you may or may not want to hold through earnings.
Trades about to Happen
This software name has broken out from a year long $40 wide consolidation zone. The measured move target is $180 ( $140 + $40 wide consolidation ) This is due for a pull back to either back test the breakout at $140 or the rising 20ema at $141. Be patient here. Alarm $141. If / when it trips try to get long as close to $140 as possible. Set your stop just below. THat would be as tight a set up as you could want. If the rally proceeds, look for $180 over time.
The only short idea on the list. $SBUX reported earnings last night. Price was rejected at a key technical level and is trading down on a massively bullish day. In my opinion the path of least resistance is lower. I favor a short position against $79 with a target of $65 over time. The fly in the ointment is the 50ema at $74 that may provide some support. Even so, the trade would be profitable at that point.Price is trading around $77.50 in the pre-market after earnings. . Keep it in focus, we are at an objective level for a short entry against $79.
Price is moving into a $3 price void after taking out the 50ema at $20. I like the idea of a long against $20 with an eye on $23.50 as a first target. The grand prize down the road is the $8 gap fill between 25 and 33. Even if you don’t take this trade, alarm $24.50 as a heads up on price’s approach to the gap. That is one you don’t want to miss be it a few weeks from now of far down the road. That gap will get filled.
Price is approaching the 50 ema and a $6 price void. Alarm $20 and take it long with a break above. I’d expect price to move quickly through that void. Once it fills, there may be enough momentum to carry price to a tag of the 200 ema near $29.
Price broke out above $70 but is now back testing the break out. I like this one long against $69.50 or wherever your risk tolerance is. Price has been walking the 8 ema and if the rally continues, I expect it to continue that path. Kill any long trade if price loses $69.
Like Crowdstrike above, Carvana broke out but is now back testing the breakout from $85. With both lateral and 8ema support there is a good chance this holds $85. I like the idea of getting long against $85. Warning: This is a volatile stock that can easily move 3-5% in a day. If that isn’t your cup of tea, take a pass. There are plenty of other set ups available.
Regional bank KEY Bank, is at an important technical spot just below the 50ema with a nice $3 price void just above. Set an alarm just above the 50ema at $12.50. When the alarm triggers, get long against $12.50 w/ a stop just below say at $12. Fifty cents of risk for potentially $3 of reward. Look for $15.50-$15.75 as your target. With the price void, I’d expect a fast move with very few trades in between $12.50 and $15.50.
$GOOGL 60 min
Boy do I love gaps! Here GOOGL gapped up $100. I don’t know when or how, but I do know that gap will fill and I will be ready. I want you to be ready too. Alarm $1327, then wait. Once it triggers get short. In this case there is support at $1280, but hey, I will take a $50 move , won’t you? A very good chance that it will fill the whole thing down to $1230. And for you bulls, This is a perfect place to get long against $1330 for the potential gap n go scenario. With earnings out of the way, having a position is de-risked. Trail your stop up if it starts to run. Simply be flexible. If you’re long and it reverses, immediately flip short if it enters the gap for the fill.
Pulling it all together
So there you go….8 ideas to fill your trade funnel. Pick and choose what you like and be selective. Watch your overall exposure and keep it in line with your risk tolerance. The market seems like it is bound and determined to go higher at the moment. We’ll continue to look for ideas primarily on the long side until they no longer work. Then we’ll flip bearish if / when the rally fades. One thing this rally proves is that markets can and do go higher than you’d ever expect. Those that keep trying to pick a top and shorting have been losing. Let’s not over think this…let’s follow price and let it lead the way. Reminder: Scrub these names for their earnings release dates. I have not done that. I typically do not hold a stock through earnings, but that is just me.
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