Has Brazil Bottomed?




As of early 2018, Brazil’s Market proxy $EWZ had tripled off the Jan / Feb 2016 lows of around $16.50 to $47 and change. Since then its been falling apart and the selling has accelerated. As of June 7th, it is down 32% off the highs.

Looking at the weekly chart, price tagged the 50% retracement Fib and technical support at $31, then bounced intra-day.  What makes me wonder if this was a capitulation sell-off event was the volume spike; 118M shares. Nearly 6x normal volume. Although I am not ready to call a bottom, the set up is worth watching in the weeks ahead.

Action Activities

  • Off the weekly chart, $31 is key support. A weekly close below $31 points toward another leg down. Alarm $30.75 for a heads up.
  • If Thursday truly was a capitulation sell off, $31 will hold and we may see a bounce to around $37-$38. Watch price action for either a bounce or consolidation.
  • If Price does bounce and retrace, Look for either a double bottom re-test or a divergent low like 2016.  Either of those would be great triggers for a long.

Annotated Daily Chart of $EWZ        Annotated Weekly Chart of $EWZ:

Good Luck ; Hope it helps!

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