Tickers discussed: FB AAPL AMZN MSFT GOOGL
The post discusses key trade locations on FAAMG names. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
View from above
Early week, we saw money get pulled out of the Q’s with significant under performance as traders migrated to cyclicals. Whenever you get money exiting QQQ its going to hit FAAMG. We saw some short term 60min trend lines tested and even marginally broken. In typical fashion, the FAAMG names rallied back mid week. What is interesting and what I want you to notice is an often seen technical move. That move is a trend line break, followed by a rally and back-test of the broken trend line, followed by an impulsive failure. You’ll see that move on a number of charts and its a bearish look. Today will be an important one technically speaking. A down day would test many important levels in these names. As we’ve said so many times, the sheer cap weighting of these names, they are the market. No amount of buying banks, airlines and restaurants can over come a decline in the FAAMGs. If you want to know where the market is heading, watching these 5 names is a great way to start..
FAAMG’s in Focus
$FB 60 Min
Focus on the uptrend line that comes in near $222.50. A break below favors a move to $215. Below $215 and here comes $202.50 ish. A break above the triangle at $230 solves the concern.
The RSI and PPO indicators are giving an early bearish look. An RSI break below trend coupled with a PPO bear cross would favor lower prices. On the chart, price has been contained within a steep upward channel. A break below $221.71 would trigger a sell signal. The 20ema at $215 aligns well with the 60m chart as T1. $202.50 is a 38.2% fib retracement and rising 50ema which also aligns well with the 60m chart T2. Bulls gotta hold $221.71.
$AAPL 60 min
Look at the fail – backtest – fail structure. Beautiful illustration of that move. To my eye, $316 then $313 are the key levels. IMO bears should give AAPL bulls the benefit of the doubt. Sit tight until yo see $313 fail, then get short with a target of $302. I failed to show it, but notice the small gap approximately 310-308. That may provide a small degree of support but I’d expect that to get filled if we get the breakdown from $313.
A break below the support line at $313 triggers a sell signal and sets up a 20ema test at $307.50, then $302 if the 20ema does not hold. Looking further below the 50 ema comes in at $295.
$AMZN 60 min
Again, fail-backtest-fail. At a larger level, the fake break out and subsequent move back into the prior trading range is bearish and targets the bottom of the box. A price move below $2390 opens the door to the prior low and then targets $2280 – $2270 zone.
The chart is well annotated with the key levels highlighted. What stands out to me is the location of the 20ema and 50ema. THey align perfectly with the 60min key levels and targets. I favor a 50ema test. A move above $2450 solves the concern.
$MSFT 60 min
Price is on a short term 60min sell signal while price is below trend. The target is $176. A break back above trend kills the set up.
After multiple tries, price never could take out the trend line off the ATH. RSI and PPO offer early bearish looks. Again, the 20ema at 180.44 and 50ema at 174 align well with the ST charts. Use them as guides trading this time frame.
$GOOGL 60 min
Simple ( not necessarily easy ) set up. If $1410 holds its a routine back test of the breakout. If it doesn’t, then it looks like a failed breakout and lower prices would be favored. Focus on $1410. Its the key level here. I penciled in a potential double top and the structure would be triggered on a break of the prior low targeting an additional 3% down move.
The chart sets up for a tight short with a stop above for aggressive traders. Otherwise, a break of the uptrend triggers a sell signal with an initial target of $1360ish.
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