Dollar Bulls in Control

The $USD has been consolidating for nearly 2 years after having had an epic run from June 2014 – March 2015.  Since then it has been range bound between 100.50 and 92.  The Dollar is now breaking out and has an open runway to move higher. Trader’s can view 100.5 to 100.70 as a support zone. You can see this clearly on the weekly chart shown below.  If any $USD weakness were to result in a pull back into this area, interested traders could use the opportunity to get long with a tight stop.  Unless and until the $USD has a weekly close below 100.50 the bulls remain in control.

While this is not a prediction by any means, and may be viewed by some as an absurd notion, there is not a lot of technical resistance between the current position of the $USD and the 120 level where it topped in 2002. You can see this on the long term monthly chart shown below. Viewed in those terms, building a long position in the Dollar on dips would be a smart move. Again, with 100.5 as a stop, the minimal downside risk vs potential upside reward is substantial.

Macro Factors
The rising bond yields, an impending FOMC rate hike priced in at nearly 100% and  optimism regarding fiscal stimulus via an infrastructure package in early 2017 are supportive of dollar strength. The YEN and EURO remain tepid against the dollar.  In just 3 weeks the $USD has appreciated 6% against the YEN  and 4% against the EURO.  As long as the FOMC talk remains hawkish and expectations for a stimulus package remain in place, pull backs in the Dollar should remain shallow and short lived.

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