Daily Profit Navigator July 20

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Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM NTRA FIZZ BBY   FAAMG Update   Strategy & Tactics

The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Trader’s Couch

Most people think of trading as an intellectual activity. Gathering information, synthesizing solutions and methods, creating processes to solve problems.   In reality,  trading is a performance sport. Athletes, Opera singers, CEO’s and traders are all in the performance game. In every performance sport I can think of, the effective performer builds a team of people with special skills all aligned with the performer’s goals. Winning performers know that success depends on many elements and that “going it along” is not a winning strategy.  So if the probability of winning is highly increased by building a highly competent and aligned team, how come you are trading by yourself?   Do some serious thinking about this. In the mentorship groups, we are taking a close look at this and are beginning to identify potential resources traders can use to begin building a high-performance trading team.

 

Earnings

Marquis names IBM, MSFT, TSLA, INTC headline a busy week of earnings releases as the season swings into full gear. 

News Flow

  • Oxford / AZN vaccine data due out today
  • Euro at 4mo high on EU talks
  • Florida covid “out of control”; Los Angeles close behind
  • CVX nears deal to buy $NBL for $5B

Market Snapshots 

Holding Pattern

We are in the summer doldrums with low liquidity and possibly low interest. SPX has been in a 300 point range for 7 weeks and up against strong resistance.  If SPY can pop $323 it has nice room to run toward $329.  $QQQ has been soggy with $AMZN down 5 days in a row and down 7% last week.  I expect the Q’s to oscillate in front of MSFT and TSLA earnings Wed. after the bell. Folks are talking value again but not being reflected in IWM too much. I see financials and airlines being soggy.  No need to short a dull market.  Let’s see if any catalysts appear that can prompt a strong buy or sell signal.

Post OPEX week

The week after OPEX often is a market inflection point. Look for signs of a change in character.

 Strategy and Tactics – No changes

Benefit of doubt remains with Bulls. 

  • Warning flags for bulls are all over the place, but that’s been true for weeks if not months.
  • Make bears prove they can take, then maintain, control.
  • Ratchet stops / Strikes higher on your winners and keep exposure at manageable levels.
    • Mark clear levels on your holdings for exits; honor those levels on a pull back.
  • Massive OH gap to fill on SPY to 329.
  • QQQ seeing relative weakness, May pause or pull back here. Watch FAAMGS for clues.
  • Eye’s wide open though trying to keep open and flexible to new data and inputs.
  • Expecting a hi-vol summer with Covid and political headlines whipsawing markets
  • I realize its difficult, but don’t lock it on an idea or thesis. Stay open and flexible in your thinking. Let price be our guide. Stay mentally flexible here.

FAAMG Live Annotated Charts

Annotations updated  Friday July 17

NOTE:   Microsoft triggered a sell signal on the break of it’s up trend line. Wrestling with its 20ema. Watch 202.50

Click on the Links to view my annotated live charts

FB                  Daily

AAPL            Daily

AMZN          Daily

MSFT           Daily 

GOOGL       Daily 

Charts in Focus

$NTRA – Still like it long

Featured this one recently. Hasn’t done a lot, but still like it long against $46. I see $56 – $58 as the target.

$FIZZ – Still Bubbly; Stay long

We bought the breakout from $55. Bubbles still rising. If you’re in the trade, stay long as this grinds higher. Depending where your strike is positioned, consider rolling up and out buying 3 more months of time. There may be a hesitation at $71 but some consolidation is to be expected.

$BBY – Best Buy would be a buy at all time highs

If price can take out $90, it’s a good bet that it will flash $100 to at least tag it.  Set yourself an alarm.

Index Chart Review

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30min

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