Daily Profit Compass Sep 29

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM, FATMAAN names, SMH, TGT, WYNN

The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Trader’s Couch

Cleaning out the Closet

In the “look at me” world of social media, its almost an obligation to project an image of perfection and how you’ve got it all figured out. The fact is we all have suitcases of “baggage” we drag around our whole lives. Although the burden is heavy, most are content dragging those suitcases around because to open them up means Pandora’s box is open and what is inside isn’t pretty. It is the scar tissue of our lives.  Broken dreams, broken promises, resentments, anger, failed relationships, feelings of insecurity etc.  Most can’t face even the thought of digging into that mess. For those that muster the courage to open the baggage, hunt for the demons, and then kill them is the “work in the mirror” that I refer to so often. That is the work we try to do in the Mentorship Groups and it is not easy.

Make no mistake about it though, whatever demons you have lurking in your baggage or “junk closet” will certainly emerge and quite possibly dominate your trading and trading environment. Trading does that. The very nature of markets is to discover, then exploit, your weaknesses. So the issue becomes pay me now with blood, sweat and tears tackling those deepest insecurities or pay me later with money and additional heavy does of emotional pain.  You decide which path you want to take. Life does not offer shortcuts.

Companion Video

The Daily Profit Compass video provides a detailed technical view of the indexes, FATMAAN names along with plenty of market commentary aimed at keeping you on the right side of the trade.  Tickers: SPY, QQQ, IWM, FB, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, NFLX, TSLA,  Trade ideas on SMH, TGT, WYNN

 

Earnings

News Flow

  • First Presidential Debate tonight
  • $TGT to challenge $AMZN with its own Prime Day deals
  • Will GM’s deal with $NKLA still close tomorrow?
  • Peter Thiel tightens grip on Palantir ahead of public listing. Corporate governance questioned.

 

Market Snapshots

 

Active Trade set ups / Positions

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sept 28 – 29.  Tactically trading the Indexes and FATMAAN names during this hi-vol environment.  SPY breaking above $341.50 and QQQ above $280 will be milestones and inspire more confidence to initiate longer-duration positions.

Sept 24 ( Today )  $SCPL lost $16 into the close.  Our position in Nov 15 Calls can be closed out for either a scratch trade or a slight profit. I will add that the big buyers in Nov 15 Calls and Nov 20 calls remain in open interest.  I leave it up to you whether to hold as a speculative position or to simply close it out.

$NTR.  If $NTR loses $39.50, close it.  A strong $USD will weight on commodity complex and basic materials sector.

Sept 22 – Exited PDD and AAPL shorts with upswing underway.

Sept 18  rolled AAPL to oct 2 105 P and booked 100% on the 112.5P;  Bot PPD oct 75 P; Bot QQQ sept 25 268P at the close per mid-day note. 

Sept 16 AAPL Sept 25 $112.5 puts at 3.25

Sept 15  Followed unusual options activity and promising chart into  SCPL NOV 15 calls at 1.95.   Speculative Trade

Sept 14   Entered NTR Nov 40 Calls

Pulling it all together – Strategy and Outlook

  • Tactically Bullish but happy to trade the vol in either direction
  • Strategically Neutral to slightly bearish.
    • We are still on daily sell signals across the board and price has not proven yet that it can break above prior trading range highs.

Other Observations and Commentary

  • FATMAAN names, aside from GOOGL, are still way above their 200 ems even after the recent pull back.
  • We have not even had a 38% Fib retrace of the March  – September advance. Technically speaking There is still more to go.
  • Until proven otherwise by price, I am not buying that we can put in a durable bottom with excess call buying and zero fear in the market.
  • Sentiment is far from washed out. Dipsters still very active, especially in tech.
  • Political turmoil from here until November does not lend itself to piling in long. ( Tactically maybe, Long-Term no )   Expecting increased Vol through election.
    • If DC can come together for a substantial Covid Relief Package, that would be a big boost for markets but IMO would only come after a market dump as a catalyst.
  • We have daily sell signals across the board on the indexes and the RSI / PPO indicators are all in bear territory for the first time since March. THat is a change of character that should be respected.
  • Weekly hi-level PPO bear crosses are pending for major indexes and FATMAAN names and could be confirmed tomorrow. These signals would favor lower prices for longer and a deeper pull back. For reference, we had weekly sell signals in March, Q4 $2018, and for “Volmageddon in Feb 2018.  They don’t happen every day.
  • In the Bulls favor is the FOMC.  If there was a big market dump, Powell & Co. would likely bring out the bazookas but it would have to be a big drop. I dont think the Fed wants to step in weeks away from an election to save everything for fear of being accused of partisanship.

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As the host of Trader’s Profit Compass, I work hard to inspire, empower, and prepare aspiring traders to face the markets with fortitude, quiet confidence and inner calm. It’s a protein-rich, sugar free environment without ego or judgement. While I can’t promise that joining our group will change your life, I’d like to think it will help your trading. Give it a spin!  Nothing to lose and potentially much to gain.

Our group of aspiring traders are into active swing trading using technical analysis to find objective, high-probability,  low-risk trades.  Using these processes we’ve been fortunate to be winning; not perfect but winning. If that is appealing to you, join us!  I’d like to think you’d benefit from the work.  You’ll get premium  content 6 times a week including a copy of my Daily Profit Compass, Weekend Profit Navigator,along with other actionable content delivered directly to your mailbox. You’ll even get an invite to our new trading room on SLACK.

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