Daily Profit Compass March 29

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA TLT SPLV XLP XLRE XLB XLU

The  Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Earnings are winding down for this cycle but still some noteworthy names.  CHWY, BB, MCK, MU, KMX.   We’ll start getting big banks in the next week or so to kick off the next cycle.

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Rotation to Safety

Take a look at the low-vol ETF.  Breaking out from a big consolidation range. Check out other defensive ETFS    XLP / XLRE / XLU.   XLP and XLRE have clear breakouts working.  XLU has an emerging move from a consolidation zone.  I continue to think bubble stocks and tech in general is under distribution while money flow has found more defensive names.

QQQ: War at the 50 

the Q’s continue to wrestle w/ the 50 as SPY reaches toward the highs.  I think Tech and specifically the bubble stocks continue to be in distribution.  Detailed in the video are charts of low-vol defensive sectors and stocks that are breaking out.  SPLV – low vol ETF  XLP / XLRE defensives breaking out.  XLU making a move.  XLB breaking out.   So re-opening trades and defensive are gaining money flows.  Also keep in mind a big fund rebalancing is set for March 31.  THis could cause some added vol and sector rotation.

Easter is Apr 4.   Europe closes Wednesday for an extended holiday. THe NYSE is closed Friday. Expect lower liquidity in the back half of the week.

Discussion Topics
  • Short Week. Markets closed Friday for Easter. Europe shuts down wednesday. Make sure your positions are covered for Friday option expiry.
  • Big fund re-balancing into Quarter end on Wed. Mar 31. Could spur vol or big sector rotation.
  • QQQ continues to battle the 50ema and its chart looks very different that SPY which is reacting toward the highs.
  • There continues to be distribution of the high-valuation tech names and tech in general. I show 4-5 charts showing defensive sectors that are getting bid in this rotation.
  • More fall out about last week’s liquidation of a big family office of $20B in leveraged positions focused on GS / MS / Nomura / Credit Suisse.   More news flow coming. Watch out for this morphing into something bigger.
  • Market remains choppy. Be careful leaning way out on directional trades. 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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