Daily Profit Compass March 17

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA TLT

The  Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video – Will Return Tomorrow. 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

 

Irish Luck wouldn’t Hurt 

Although the indexes remain at or near the highs, things feel wobbly. Yesterday saw cyclicals / value / IWM give up some nice gains and under perform.  Yields feel like the want to go higher and if that plays out, tech should again remain in the crosshairs….especially bubble stocks which can be played as a basket thru the ARK family of funds. ARKK / ARKF / ARKG / ARKW / ARKQ.   Lets watch how equities and bonds react to JPOW this afternoon

Discussion Topics

  • Important 10 yr TIPs auction at 1pm followed by the FOMC at 2pm and JPOW presser at 2.30pm are potentialy big catalysts in bond / equity markets
  • Technically, TLT is in the edge of nothingness. Below $136 and technical support all but disappears and would open a path for a rate spike. That said being short TLT is a crowded trade. JPOW comments potentially could cause a short covering rally.
    • Longer term I think rates go higher; TLT lower.
    • I am short TLT but I never like sitting in a crowded trade.
  • IWM technically is holding it together but not by much. THe key technical levels are detailed in the video. If you’re loaded with cyclical / value names, consider hedging out your long risk in these names w/ IWM puts if / when the key levels break. That will mitigate pain thru any minor correction. Time frame is everything.
  • QQQ – premarket is feeling the heat as rates rise. Key off the technical levels shown on the charts and expect added vol centered on rates.
  • FOMC – Remember the rule of thumb. The first knee-jerk move off of the FOMC announcement is usually FAKE
    • Have some patience or simply step aside during the post -FOMC noise. It may take even a day or two for the true path of equities to emerge. You wont be able to make money if you’re turned into a waffle 15 min after the announcement. They’ll be plenty of time to participate in the emerging trends.

Order Flow Insights

Order flow trends flagged $FB / $FUBO / $SNOW as unusual bullish buys.   Note the PUT flow in IWM which is cautionary.

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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