Daily Profit Compass March 12

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA  TLT  MMM XPEL

The  Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker..

Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

QQQ Headfake? 

Yesterday, QQQ made a power move to close above both the 20 and 50 ema’s on the daily chart. These are important technical buy – triggers for technicians. Now though, in premarket trading QQQ is down 1.5% and was down as much as 2% over night.  If this holds into today’s close it would make yesterdays price action look like a massive head fake which would likely have trapped a lot of bulls buying into the rally.  That said, IWM and SPY continue to look very strong and money flows into value and cyclical names.  It will be important this afternoon to see how they close it. Risk or or risk off?

Discussion Topics
  • 10 year rates ramp to 1.60% in premarket
  • This is putting pressure on QQQ which is down 1.5% in premarket trading. Should these premarket losses hold thru the close, it would make yesterday’s move to take out the 20 and 50 ema’s look like a massive headfake that would likely trap a lot of longs that were using the 50ema as an important technical level and buying trigger.
  • IWM remains a pillar of strength as fresh money continues to flow into value, cyclicals and in general the re-opening trade.
  • SPY too remains strong.
  • Discuss TLT in the video and the technical picture.
  • Next week features an FOMC meeting, a couple of big bond auctions, and a Bank of Japan meeting plus $1400 stimmy checks hitting the street.
  • Lets watch to see how they close this market at the end of the week. Is it risk on plowing into the weekend or do traders get skittish and pull back?

Order Flow Insights

There were 3 stocks that were flagged for bullish order flow.   PLTR, JMIA, ABNB

TLT – Driving the NASDAQ Action

TLT has taken a leg down and is now consolidating in a flat bear flag. A break below $138 or certainly below $136 would likely result in a sharp second leg down.  A measure move target for such a move would be in the high $120’s – $130 range.  In this scenario, 10 year rates would be racing north of 1.65% and on it’s way toward 2%.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY Daily

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ Daily

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM Daily

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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