Daily Profit Compass Feb 22

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA TNX TLT  $CRB  KRE XLF

The  Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names along with a few chart set ups, open position review and cannabis names. .  All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker.

Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Economic Calendar

  • Retail Sales / Industrial Production / Business Inventories /  FOMC Barkin, Rosengren, Kaplan speak /  FOMC Minutes 2pm
  • Oil inventories delayed until tomorrow due to President’s Day.

The Beginnings of a Sinister Turn?

If you have been with me for any length of time, you know I am not big into predictions. I’d rather identify the key levels, then react to price accordingly.  That said we’ve been discussing the set up for weeks n weeks.  THis much we know…

  • Bullish Sentiment is on the moon
  • Bullish positioning in on the moon as well. Both pro money and retail are “all -in” long.
  • Short interest is at record lows.
  • February OPEX roll off has opened the possibility for added vol and price movement.
  • “Reasonable Valuations” left the station a long time ago.

The market is ripe for a simple 3-5% pull back but as we’ve seen, the dipsters buy the first red bar they see. They dont even wait for the second bar and that strategy has been working. For that reason along we have to be hyper focused on the levels and not assume anything.

There have been zero sell signals on the daily charts but they are close and depending on how today plays out, we may see those triggers tripped at the end.

Strategy

I think the right way to approach things are as follows:

  • Do not assume the dipsters step in because once you assume they will and they disappear, you’re dead.
  • Exit individual positions if / when your stop gets hit  or at your discretion to lock in profits and / or to reduce your overall long exposure
  • Add short exposure if / when the key levels are violated.  THese will act as hedges on the the longs you choose to keep.
  • If / when any pull back deepens we can go further towards net short, but we’ve got a long way to go before that point.  Id expect the 50 ema to hold, but if it does not then that will be a more significant level telling us a deeper pull back is afoot.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY Daily

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ Daily

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM Daily

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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