Daily Profit Compass August 21

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Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM  STX  ABT  WORK  Strategy & Tactics

The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Trader’s Couch 

The aspiring trader should never lose sight of the fact that growth in one’s trading success is largely a measure of understanding themselves.  You’ll never understand the millions and millions of interactions that make a market and efforts to do so will result in frustration and wasted time. Spend the most time and effort working to understand yourself and to eliminate the psychologies that undercut our performance on a daily basis. You know the mechanics of what to do; now go do it.

 

Earnings

August OPEX

August expiration is today. be sure to clean up any positions so there are no surprises tomorrow morning with unwanted assignments.

Not a lot to say that I have not said recently.  Longer term trend channels in SPY / QQQ are in tact.  In  this largely FAAMG driven run, lots of yellow  flags have been waving      but have not played out.   The next worry is the post – August OPEX rollover. Not uncommon for the week after an option expiration to be an inflection point for markets. Not a bad time to review positions to tidy them up. Let’s see how they wrap up this opex Friday.

Strategy & Tactics –  

  • FAAMG – THe 60 min levels on these names have been pure gold. Use them to your advantage if you are an active traders.
  • Staying bullish does not mean complacent
    • Stay vigilant! Ratchet stops / Strikes higher on your winners and keep exposure at manageable levels.
    • Dont be afraid to go short if you get a price signal; especially if you’re holding a bunch of longs. You’ll like that balance on red days. 
    • Mark clear levels on your holdings for exits; honor those levels on a pull back.
    • You know they can pull the rug at any time for no reason at all.
  • Stay Fluid and flexible in both positions and thinking; Dont lock in on Narratives.
  • Expecting a hi-vol summer with Covid and political headlines whipsawing markets

FAAMG Live Annotated Charts

Click on the Links to view my annotated live charts

Updated Aug 17

FB                  Daily

AAPL            Daily

AMZN          Daily

MSFT           Daily 

GOOGL       Daily 

 

Charts of Interest / Trade Ideas

$STX Daily

Something is terribly wrong in the computer hard drive / storage space.  $WDC has already broken down and appears headed toward the March lows. Here, Seagate has already broken down below the neckline of a head and shoulders formation that projects a measured move back to the March lows. Set yourself an alarm at $44.  On a break below, get short. Nothing much to stop this from finding $39/38 on a break below.

$ABT

Abbott Labs is consolidating in a nice $4 wide box. Alarm $102 and wait patiently for the breakout. Get long on the breakout and look for $106-107

$WORK

To be frank, $WORK has been soggy for a couple months after a nice move off the lows. Now however, price finds itself at an interesting spot.  A break above $30 would put price above downtrend resistance and all the moving averages with some room to run above.  Alarm $30 for the breakout and get long. Once above $30 there will be a lot of technical and ema support below it.

Active Trade set ups / Positions

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Aug 20 Activity: 

XRT- Extreme bearish order flow has again picked up with big players shooting against our long position. In the face of soggy retail numbers and the bearish order flow we closed the Sept 50 Calls for $3.05

$V Rolled stops to breakeven

Aug 19 Activity: 

Trade Idea to get long $V  at the money Sept  Calls against $200.

Aug 13 Activity

$XRT – Sept 50 C ; Closed 1/2 of position.  Entered Aug 5 at 1.90; closed at 2.90.   On the other 1/2 of position sold Sept 53 C for $1.20 credit.  These moves were prompted by extreme bearish order flow into the Aug 28 exp $51 puts over 15,000 x.  Retail Sales and Retailer earnings forthcoming.

EBAY  Opened Sept 60 calls. $1.23. Looking for a move back to the highs

$IBB Closed short position for a small loss.

 Aug 12 Activity

$INTC  I finally gave up on this short. More a time thing than price hurting. Closed Sept 47.50 Puts for about a 30% loss.

$GLD  Re-entered short with Aug $180 puts. Needs to move rather quickly, if it does not, will need to exit or buy more time.

Aug 11  Activity

$IBB – opened Aug $132P   $2.32

$MNST – opened Aug 80P looking for gap fill coming out of bracket low.   $1.02

$CF – Taking a shot at Sept 40 C  at 45c.   after players hit that strike 2600x ++

$DNKN –  opened Sept 72.5 C  looking for a breakout ahead of earnings after the Sept options expiration.

$GLD  Closed puts for massive 340% win.  looking to re-enter;  – Bot GLD Aug 14 $190 P  Aug 7

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$UUP – Initiated Sept UUP Sept 25.50 calls  Aug 3    looks like a fail. Will post if i exit

 

Index Chart Review

SPY 30 min

 

QQQ 30 min

IWM 30 min

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