Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FAAMG Update Open position update Strategy & Tactics
The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Trader’s Couch –
If you make a mistake get out; take a step back to re-assess, then move forward with a fresh mindset.
Covering the Indexes and FAAMG along with commentary on the market’s technical posture.
The peak of earnings season was last week, but still plenty to go.
- Congressional Stalemate persists on Covid Relief Package
- Market awaits the July Jobs Report.
- Trump amps up pressure on Chinese Tech. Tencent loses $35B in market cap as WeChat tumbles market roil.
- 67 NFL players opt out of 2020 season.
Super-Sized Jobs Day
We await the much anticipated July Jobs report to get a read on the economy. As always though, the report is backwards looking. THe data collection cut off was July 15, we are already 3 weeks past that. With Congress locked up on Covid there isnt a lot of good news flow to counter act any bad news from the jobs report. Friday’s can get weird in the Summer on low liquidity. Watch your weekend risk for the sames reasons. Let’s see how they close the week.
Strategy & Tactics – No Changes
Fresh break outs are bullish. Now we have clean likes to shoot against across all the indexes.
The new levels become key reference levels for us going forward.
- FAAMG – Continue to Watch closely for bullish or bearish price action following earnings.
- Covid Relief Bill, initial jobless claims, and July unemployment print on Friday are the big macro factors on the board for this week.
- Markets seem poised for a FOMO run. Watch for QQQ breakout to ATH and SPY breakout above $329 to spark another rally. Check…..we got this yesterday
- Massive GDP contraction and bump in initial jobless claims met with a collective sigh by markets. No effect.
- Caution on GOLD / SILVER appears to have been wrong as FOMO rages. Tough to set in long here. It’s like buying JMIA at $22 yesterday. When ever this collapse / pulls back, it will be fast. Be sure you are rolling and protecting your profits.
- Staying bullish does not mean complacent
- Stay vigilant! Ratchet stops / Strikes higher on your winners and keep exposure at manageable levels.
- Dont be afraid to go short if you get a price signal; especially if you’re holding a bunch of longs. You’ll like that balance on red days.
- Mark clear levels on your holdings for exits; honor those levels on a pull back.
- You know they can pull the rug at any time for no reason at all.
- Stay Fluid and flexible in both positions and thinking; Dont lock in on Narratives.
- Expecting a hi-vol summer with Covid and political headlines whipsawing markets
FAAMG Live Annotated Charts
Click on the Links to view my annotated live charts
Active Trade set ups / Positions
Bold Text signals meaningful technical changes and / or potential change in an active position.
$TLT – Initiated Sept 170 Calls on Aug 3 >>>>> Rolled to Sept 4 TLT 172 calls at the bell Aug 4
$UUP – Initiated Sept UUP Sept 25.50 calls Aug 3 looks like a fail. Will post if i exit
JMIA – After a run from 8.50 to 24 in a couple weeks, we got stopped as the parabolic advance collapsed. Earnings Aug 12. Will pick up ball after that.
$FCX – We have SEP 14 calls at $1.18 for exposure in the materials space.
NEE – Flagging above $280 post earnings; considering fresh long entry
$DLTR – New Name. Alarm $100 for a potential gap fill $12 higher.
$COST: Monster break out. We are long against $322.50. Measured move target is $357. Stay long. Manage risk.
$YETI – Closed for $6 win; Earnings Thursday Aug 6 BMO Please exit today if you are still in
$PZZA – Closed for $10 Win. EARNINGS AUG 6 BMO ; Please exit today prior to earnings
$FDX – Watching for re-entry – exited last week at 173.5
$GDX – PM complex near peak FOMO and parabolic charts are due for a pause. Keep rolling and protecting your positions.
$NFLX – Price flirting with the $25 OH gap at 405. 405 is an important pivot. Trade as you like. Ops on both sides.
CHEF – Watching
$DDS – Did you pick some up? Up 20-25% in just a few days. Like it long against 22.50; but short against $22.50 on a break below.
$FIZZ – We are out
$OLLI – Watch for downside bracket break or potential long. Active Bracket trade set up. Alarm $110 for potential breakout to fresh ATH’s;
$BBY – BRacket Buy Trigger yesterday. Active Bracket 99.50 and 95.30.
$SYNA – Active bracket but earnings Aug 5 Bracket trade set up . alarm $81 and $77. Waiting till after earnings to enter
$WMT – 20 ema test. staying long. 20ema is line in sand.
$WKHS – Vol compression now. Could break either way. Set an alarm at $13 support.
$XRT – We got long against $45.50; with the stock near 50 we Rolled up from August 45 Calls to Sept 50 calls and raised stop to 48; staying long
$INTC – Any daily close above $49.50 and we are out. We’re in the Sept 47.50 Puts
Index Chart Review
SPY 4 hour
SPY 30 min
QQQ 4 hour
QQQ 30 min
IWM 4 hour
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