Daily Profit Compass Aug 6

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM  DE  NTRA FB AAPL AMZN MSFT GOOGL FAAMG Update   Open position update Strategy & Tactics

The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Trader’s Couch – Will Return

Earnings

The peak of earnings season was last week, but still plenty to go.

News Flow

  • Market says a deal is near;  Deal makers say the differences remain wide.
  • CALPERS  CIO  to leave after just 2 years as returns fall short.   It’s not easy finding the 7.5% returns pension funds need in a 1% world.
  • $DB gives up Trump docs under subpoena;  Beirut blast kills hundreds as authorities conduct desperate search for survivors and answers
  • Boeing and Airbus keep making planes that Airlines neither need nor have the money to buy.
  • Buffett continues his accumulation of $BAC, buying in 12 consecutive days.
  • Airlines are up this morning as momentum builds to give them another $25B in aid.  I guess all those “pre-layoff warning letters” sent out by airlines were read by more people than just the recipients.

Market snapshots

 

 

Charts in Focus

$NTRA Medical Supplier has an emerging breakout and reported earnings last night. Seeing positive price action in the premarket.  Watching closely.

Deere and the Ag complex

Deere is breaking out and is being supported by a move higher in many of the Ag complex commodities.   Earnings are Aug 21 so buying the August chain for a pre-earnings run will be a fast trade.  Other names in the complex that I am watching are CF / MOS / DBA / NTR

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Fresh initial claims data due out at 8.30. Then we get to look forward to the big jobs report tomorrow.   Futures are a little soggy.  THe lines / levels on the index charts are clear. If you’re an active trader, trade level to level.  Swing Traders can sit tight through the vol.  No technical reason to exit.

Not a ton of extra commentary this Thursday morning. Hawking some set ups to forward you later today.

Strategy & Tactics –  Renewed bullish posture. 

Fresh break outs are bullish. Now we have clean likes to shoot against across all the indexes.

The new levels become key reference levels for us going forward.  

  • FAAMG – Continue to Watch closely for bullish or bearish price action following earnings.
  • Covid Relief Bill, initial jobless claims, and July unemployment print on Friday are the big macro factors on the board for this week.
  • Markets seem poised for a FOMO run. Watch for QQQ breakout to ATH and SPY breakout above $329 to spark another rally.   Check…..we got this yesterday
  • Massive GDP contraction and bump in initial jobless claims met with a collective sigh by markets. No effect. 
  • Caution on GOLD / SILVER appears to have been wrong as FOMO rages. Tough to set in long here.  It’s like buying JMIA at $22 yesterday. When ever this collapse / pulls back, it will be fast. Be sure you are rolling and protecting your profits.
  • Staying bullish does not mean complacent
    • Stay vigilant! Ratchet stops / Strikes higher on your winners and keep exposure at manageable levels.
    • Dont be afraid to go short if you get a price signal; especially if you’re holding a bunch of longs. You’ll like that balance on red days. 
    • Mark clear levels on your holdings for exits; honor those levels on a pull back.
    • You know they can pull the rug at any time for no reason at all.
  • Stay Fluid and flexible in both positions and thinking; Dont lock in on Narratives.
  • Expecting a hi-vol summer with Covid and political headlines whipsawing markets

 

FAAMG Live Annotated Charts

Click on the Links to view my annotated live charts

FB                  Daily

AAPL            Daily

AMZN          Daily

MSFT           Daily 

GOOGL       Daily 

Active Trade set ups / Positions

Bold Text signals meaningful technical changes and / or potential change in an active position. 

$TLT – Initiated Sept 170 Calls on Aug 3 >>>>> Rolled to Sept 4 TLT 172 calls at the bell Aug 4

$UUP – Initiated Sept UUP Sept 25.50 calls  Aug 3    looks like a fail. Will post if i exit

JMIA –  After a run from 8.50 to 24 in a couple weeks, we got stopped as the parabolic advance collapsed. Earnings Aug 12. Will pick up ball after that.

$FCX – Got long yesterday with SEP 14 calls at $1.18 for exposure in the materials space.

NEE – Flagging above $280 post earnings; considering fresh long entry

$DLTR –  New Name. Alarm $100 for a potential gap fill $12 higher.

$COST: Monster break out. We are long against $322.50.  Measured move target is $357. Stay long. Manage risk.

$YETI –  Closed for $6 win;  Earnings Thursday Aug 6  BMO   Please exit today if you are still in

$PZZA –  Closed for $10 Win. EARNINGS AUG 6 BMO  ; Please exit today prior to earnings

$FDX – Watching for re-entry – exited last week at 173.5

$GDX –  PM complex near peak FOMO and parabolic charts are due for a pause. Keep rolling and protecting your positions.

$NFLX – Price flirting with the $25 OH gap at 405.   405 is an important pivot. Trade as you like. Ops on both sides. 

CHEF – Watching

$DDS –   Did you pick some up?   Up 20-25% in just a few days.  Like it long against 22.50; but short against $22.50 on a break below.

$FIZZ –   We are out 

$OLLI –  Watch for downside bracket break or potential long. Active Bracket trade set up. Alarm $110 for potential breakout to fresh ATH’s; 

$BBY – BRacket Buy Trigger yesterday. Active Bracket 99.50 and 95.30.  

$SYNA – Active bracket but earnings Aug 5  Bracket trade set up . alarm $81 and $77.   Waiting till after earnings to enter

$WMT – 20 ema test. staying long. 20ema is line in sand.

$WKHS – Vol compression now. Could break either way. Set an alarm at $13 support.

$XRT –  We got long against $45.50; with the stock near 50 we Rolled up from August 45 Calls to Sept 50 calls and raised stop to 48; staying long

$INTC –  Any daily close above $49.50 and we are out. We’re in the Sept 47.50 Puts

Index Chart Review

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30min

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