Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM GLD DLTR V TLT FAAMG Strategy & Tactics
The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Trader’s Couch
Stiffness will also contribute greatly to your death as a trader. Maintaining flexibility and fluidity of thinking will be your faithful companions for many many years ahead as a successful trader. For aspiring traders wanting to make true and long-lasting improvements, there just may be no better place to start than working on maintaining that suppleness of thought throughout your time both inside and outside the charts. It will serve you well.
Earnings
News Flow
- Low Rates pump home builder sentiment to 20 year highs
- Goldman lifts S&P target by 20% to $3600
- WMT, HD, KSS gets lifts on positive earnings results
- Oracle sticks it’s nose into the MSFT – TikToc deal. Expresses its own interest in buying as it lines up financing.
- $BA plans more layoffs and Buyouts to further trim workforce.
- AAPLE TV partners w/ CBS to offer bundle
Is AAPL developing an App Store problem?
SPY – JPY
Divergence: Historically the YEN has tracked well with SPY but now the divergence “jaws” are wide open. Just add this to the long list of divergences and yellow flags this market has ignored. It won’t matter until it does.
Still Testing the Top
SPY keeps testing the top and has shown a reluctance thus far to power through the technical and psychological wall at $SPX 3400. Meanwhile the great rotation to value has stalled as well as IWM has been languishing for several days and making very little noise. THe Q’s have seen some resurgence and posted a marginal new high. I would really like to see SPY break out for a confirmational green light for longs. Having that benchmark high to shoot against would be a great technical comfort. Once above I think we could run. A peek above and then fail would not be so hot, but at least we’d know where we stand. Lets see how it goes.
Strategy & Tactics –
- FAAMG – THe 60 min levels on these names have been pure gold. Use them to your advantage if you are an active traders.
- High Flying Work-from-home: Do traders rush in on the dip?
- Gold / Silver surprised me with the upside breakout; gotta respect price and go with it. If you got long, stay long.
- Staying bullish does not mean complacent
- Stay vigilant! Ratchet stops / Strikes higher on your winners and keep exposure at manageable levels.
- Dont be afraid to go short if you get a price signal; especially if you’re holding a bunch of longs. You’ll like that balance on red days.
- Mark clear levels on your holdings for exits; honor those levels on a pull back.
- You know they can pull the rug at any time for no reason at all.
- Stay Fluid and flexible in both positions and thinking; Dont lock in on Narratives.
- Expecting a hi-vol summer with Covid and political headlines whipsawing markets
FAAMG Live Annotated Charts
Click on the Links to view my annotated live charts
Updated Aug 17
FB Daily
AAPL Daily
AMZN Daily
MSFT Daily
GOOGL Daily
Charts of Interest
$GLD 60 min
If you got long on the break into the gap above $184, well done! Stay long and look for a gap fill to $190. Gold fut’s are up about 1% so you’ll see another pop this morning. It’s all about managing your risk now with your winner. If price breaks above yesterday’s high of $187, you can move your stops up to just below the swing low at 185.75 ish.
$V – Visa
These was strong bullish order flow into the name yesterday. The options were targeting Aug 21 $200 Calls as traders position for a fast breakout. I like the set up but dont see a need to front run unless you want to. You can alarm $200 or $200.50 and be ready to move fast on a breakout. Aug 21 seems too close. I’d target Sept 4 and give the trade 2.5 weeks to advance. The measured move is $12.50 so worthwhile to spend some time on it. One thing I failed to do was to mark the gap from back in March. If price breaks out I think it moves pretty fast. Earnings are in the rear view. No worries there.
$DLTR
Price entering a nice $12.50 gap. Aug 27 is when earnings are due out. I like the Aug 28th $101 Calls for about $4. Plan on being out of them prior to earnings. If price drops below the gap, kill the trade. Nice bullish flow into the name.
Active Trade set ups / Positions
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Aug 17 Activity – None
Aug 14 Activity – None
Aug 13 Activity
$XRT – Sept 50 C ; Closed 1/2 of position. Entered Aug 5 at 1.90; closed at 2.90. On the other 1/2 of position sold Sept 53 C for $1.20 credit. These moves were prompted by extreme bearish order flow into the Aug 28 exp $51 puts over 15,000 x. Retail Sales and Retailer earnings forthcoming.
EBAY Opened Sept 60 calls. $1.23. Looking for a move back to the highs
$IBB Closed short position for a small loss.
Aug 12 Activity
$INTC I finally gave up on this short. More a time thing than price hurting. Closed Sept 47.50 Puts for about a 30% loss.
$GLD Re-entered short with Aug $180 puts. Needs to move rather quickly, if it does not, will need to exit or buy more time.
Aug 11 Activity
$IBB – opened Aug $132P $2.32
$MNST – opened Aug 80P looking for gap fill coming out of bracket low. $1.02
$CF – Taking a shot at Sept 40 C at 45c. after players hit that strike 2600x ++
$DNKN – opened Sept 72.5 C looking for a breakout ahead of earnings after the Sept options expiration.
$GLD Closed puts for massive 340% win. looking to re-enter; – Bot GLD Aug 14 $190 P Aug 7
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$UUP – Initiated Sept UUP Sept 25.50 calls Aug 3 looks like a fail. Will post if i exit
JMIA – Earnings Aug 12. Killed on Earnings off 20%. May jump back in if price pulls in to solid support.
$DLTR – New Name. Alarm $100 for a potential gap fill $12 higher.
$COST: Watching carefully. Price is lower than my exit at $340 but happy to jump back in on a good set up. Measured more target in mid $350’s
$DDS – Moonshot on the short squeeze coming out of earnings.
$OLLI – Watch for downside bracket break or potential long. Active Bracket trade set up. Alarm $110 for potential breakout to fresh ATH’s;
$BBY – BRacket Buy Trigger yesterday. Active Bracket 99.50 and 95.30.
$SYNA – Active bracket but earnings Aug 5 Bracket trade set up . alarm $81 and $77. Waiting till after earnings to enter
$WKHS – Vol compression now. Could break either way. Set an alarm at $13 support.
Index Chart Review
To save a little time and space, just showing the 30min charts of the indexes today. With price doing nothing over the past 3 days from a technical perspective, there are no changes in the longer-term time frame charts. All are bullish as prices remain above trend and are well within their bullish channels.
SPY 30 min
QQQ 30 min
IWM 30 min
Seems like price is consolidating in a flag after a fast move higher. Price needs to take out $160 to really get going.
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