Daily Profit Compass Aug 17

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Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM  GLD TLT PINS  FAAMG  Strategy & Tactics

The Daily Profit Compass provides the stock market analysis for the day. Key levels and trading locations for the indexes are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Trader’s Couch 

As you must have figured out by now, on intra-day trading I am an “if this , then that ” type of trader. That is, if price moves above a certain level it is a buy….trading level to level thru the day. Where I get into trouble, and I suspect others do as well, is morphing market prep time into thesis creation time. Then locking onto that thesis to our detriment as the market deviates from plan. A better path is to either let go of these preconceived ideas or not even create them in the first place.  Yes, yes, you’ve got to know your decision-making levels, but be open and mindful to what information price is telling you. If we are truly open, we’ll be much better able to soak up that market info and make the right trading moves.

Companion Video

24 min video covers the indexes, FAAMG, bonds, gold, and several Ag ETFs that are on the move.

 

Earnings

News Flow

  • Trump orders ByteDance to sell US part of TikTok within 90 days
  • Pelosi bring the House back to deal with Postal Crisis
  • Worst heat in 70 years presses CA’s power grid to the wall.
  • Chaparral Energy files for Ch 11.

 

About China Tech

NAZ pinched in the triangle

Contrary Bull signal may give indexes further room to run

Will the Market finally Pop the Top?

A couple of weeks ago we talked about the possibility of churn beneath the prior highs as price consolidated / pulled back and created more stored energy. THat seems to be playing out. IWM has backed off $160, QQQ has failed to take out its high, and SPY has made a couple of runs at it but has fallen shy. If / when 3400 on SPX gets taken out and held, it will be a good location to buy and relocated stops higher. Resisting the urge to pile into runners. I want to see that break out before committing a ton of capital.  After that psychological level is taken out, we may get some good running room for all the indexes.

Strategy & Tactics –  

  • FAAMG – THe 60 min levels on these names have been pure gold. Use them to your advantage if you are an active traders.
  • High Flying Work-from-home:  Do traders rush in on the dip?   
  • Parabolic collapse finally hits gold / silver and miners. Still more room to downside.
  • Staying bullish does not mean complacent
    • Stay vigilant! Ratchet stops / Strikes higher on your winners and keep exposure at manageable levels.
    • Dont be afraid to go short if you get a price signal; especially if you’re holding a bunch of longs. You’ll like that balance on red days. 
    • Mark clear levels on your holdings for exits; honor those levels on a pull back.
    • You know they can pull the rug at any time for no reason at all.
  • Stay Fluid and flexible in both positions and thinking; Dont lock in on Narratives.
  • Expecting a hi-vol summer with Covid and political headlines whipsawing markets

FAAMG Live Annotated Charts

Click on the Links to view my annotated live charts

Updated Aug 17

FB                  Daily

AAPL            Daily

AMZN          Daily

MSFT           Daily 

GOOGL       Daily 

 

Charts of Interest

$GLD 60 min

Prices breaking below 181.50 favors a move to 179 to fill the gap. A break above 184 opens the door to 190 for that gap to fill. Both good areas to alarm.

$TLT – 60min

Prices continue to fall as yields rise. Support now for TLT is $162. THat will be the first location of interest is $165 is not quickly recaptured. I think $162 is a worthwhile location to start a long. A break below brings 159 into play.   Also, rising yields are a head wind for gold.

 

$PINS

Price consolidating in a nice tight bull flag after gapping up a could weeks ago. Alarm 37 and 33. Favoring a move higher. Te measured move target for such a move is $50ish.

Active Trade set ups / Positions

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Aug 14 Activity – None

Aug 13 Activity

$XRT – Sept 50 C ; Closed 1/2 of position.  Entered Aug 5 at 1.90; closed at 2.90.   On the other 1/2 of position sold Sept 53 C for $1.20 credit.  These moves were prompted by extreme bearish order flow into the Aug 28 exp $51 puts over 15,000 x.  Retail Sales and Retailer earnings forthcoming.

EBAY  Opened Sept 60 calls. $1.23. Looking for a move back to the highs

$IBB Closed short position for a small loss.

 Aug 12 Activity

$INTC  I finally gave up on this short. More a time thing than price hurting. Closed Sept 47.50 Puts for about a 30% loss.

$GLD  Re-entered short with Aug $180 puts. Needs to move rather quickly, if it does not, will need to exit or buy more time.

Aug 11  Activity

$IBB – opened Aug $132P   $2.32

$MNST – opened Aug 80P looking for gap fill coming out of bracket low.   $1.02

$CF – Taking a shot at Sept 40 C  at 45c.   after players hit that strike 2600x ++

$DNKN –  opened Sept 72.5 C  looking for a breakout ahead of earnings after the Sept options expiration.

$GLD  Closed puts for massive 340% win.  looking to re-enter;  – Bot GLD Aug 14 $190 P  Aug 7

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

$UUP – Initiated Sept UUP Sept 25.50 calls  Aug 3    looks like a fail. Will post if i exit

JMIA –   Earnings Aug 12. Killed on Earnings off 20%. May jump back in if price pulls in to solid support. 

$DLTR –  New Name. Alarm $100 for a potential gap fill $12 higher.

$COST:  Watching carefully. Price is lower than my exit at $340 but happy to jump back in on a good set up. Measured more target in mid $350’s

$DDS –   Moonshot on the short squeeze coming out of earnings. 

$OLLI –  Watch for downside bracket break or potential long. Active Bracket trade set up. Alarm $110 for potential breakout to fresh ATH’s; 

$BBY – BRacket Buy Trigger yesterday. Active Bracket 99.50 and 95.30.  

$SYNA – Active bracket but earnings Aug 5  Bracket trade set up . alarm $81 and $77.   Waiting till after earnings to enter

$WKHS – Vol compression now. Could break either way. Set an alarm at $13 support.

 

Index Chart Review

SPY  4 hour

Longs have nothing to worry about as long as price stays within the channel. Get more concerned if price drops and begins closing below.

SPY 30 min

QQQ 4 Hour

If price can pop to new highs, there’s a good chance price can begin operating in the upper half of the trend channel .

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

To my eye, the recent consolidation takes the form of a bull flag. If it executes, price should find low 170’s

IWM 30 min

Seems like price is consolidating in a flag after a fast move higher. Price needs to take out $160 to really get going.

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