Daily Profit Compass April 28

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA TLT  TNX USD

Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Mega Earnings week for MegaCap Tech.   TSLA / MSFT / FB / AAPL / AMZN all report this week plus notables UPS / GE / MMM / V / BA / SPOT / CAT / MCD / XOM / CVX    Plenty to keep us busy this week.

April Earnings Preview

While not comprehensive, the calendar highlights most of the big names scheduled to report this month beginning next week with the money center banks.

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Upgrades / Downgrades

Yield Pop makes waves ahead of the FOMC

Yields popped 5 bps yesterday after having held key support at 1.50%.  THis could mark the beginning of a reversal in yields and now they are poised to go higher. THe indicators support a move higher and confirmation would likely be if yield can take out overhead resistance at 1.65%.  A march higher in yields would likely push traders into the reopening trade again w/ cyclicals, banks, and further boost commodities with higher inflation expectations. Jay Powell may have a lot to say about it at 2pm today in his FOMC statement and follow up presser.

FOMC Reminder:  Remember the rule of thumb. ” The first move after the FOMC statement is fake”.   Dont get too torqued on the first move. Let the vol dampen out and let the market choose a real direction. Stay Patient.

Higher yields are bullish  Regional Banks KRE, cyclicals, re-opening trade, in general IWM    Higher Yields are bearish for  TLT, High valuation bubble tech stocks and the QQQ in general

$TNX – 10 year yield

After a torrid rise to 1.75%, yields have backed off in recent weeks. Notice however that key support at 1.50% held. Yesterday’s 5bps rise to 1.622 % may signal the resumption of the uptrend as more economic data pours in suggesting a booming economy with a healthy impulse of inflation along with it. The real tell will be if yields can take out 1.65% which is the next level of OH resistance. As noted on the chart, the RSI and PPO indicators look bullish to me.    Jay Powell will have a lot to say about yields this afternoon at his FOMC presser at 2.30pm

$TLT

Price is breaking below what looks like a bear flag after being rejected from the 50ema. A follow up move below 138.50 should bring in more sellers and resume the trend of lower prices / higher yields.  Disc.  I am short TLT.

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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