Daily Profit Compass April 15

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Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA

The  Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Big Banks kick off the earnings season on Wednesday.

April Earnings Preview

While not comprehensive, the calendar highlights most of the big names scheduled to report this month beginning next week with the money center banks.

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

 

Snap Rotation ( they did it again )

As they have done so many times in recent months, they pulled a snap rotation with tech being soft, and with money piling into energy, materials, and financials.

Strategic Look

These snap rotations have been tough to time and just at the point you think you have a trend, they pull the rug and rotate elsewhere. It might serve us well to keep the big picture in mind as a backdrop.

  • The economy WILL re-open; that should be positive for real economy stocks
  • Odds favor higher bond rates over lower rates.  That should be a tailwind for financials and cyclicals but a headwind for bubble tech.
  • Mega cap tech: Although rising rates are not great for tech, I think mega cap tech will hold its own as it has rock solid earnings support ( unlike bubble tech )
  • Materials / Resources / Commodities:  Taken together these have been in a 10 year bear market. That is changing. The $CRB commodity index hit a 2 year high. Ag commodities have been running which has fueled fertilizer stocks like CF, MOS, NTR, CGA along with DE etc.   Looking for a “golden age” of commodities at least for the next couple of years.  Look at the 1970’s and the period of 2000-2007.  When commodities run they can do so for years. Dont think you missed it.

I think the backdrop remains bullish for the reasons cited below.

  • Bullish Tailwinds
    • New Highs are bullish ; not Bearish
    • The run up into the next earnings cycle is usually bullish
    • Seasonality:  15 of the last 16 Aprils saw price on SPY go higher
    • TLT / Rates.  Rates have taken a breather but IMO it is a pause before rates head higher. THat would be bullish commodities, cyclicals, banks. Potentially bearish high-flier bubble stocks but we’ll suspend judgement until that day comes.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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