Daily Profit Compass April 14

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Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA NVDA ATVI CHWY BABA TLT

The  Daily Profit Compass provides stock market technical analysis for the stock market today and is focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Big Banks kick off the earnings season on Wednesday.

April Earnings Preview

While not comprehensive, the calendar highlights most of the big names scheduled to report this month beginning next week with the money center banks.

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Upgrades / Downgrades

 

Yields Drop; Risk Assets Pop

The CPI came in a bit hotter than expected yesterday but traders sold the news and yields fell. Additionally the falling yields acted as jet fuel to risk assets, specifically tech and bubble stocks like ZM and other high-valuation names.

 

Here you can see the direct response of equities to the bond yield drop following the 1pm 30yr bond auction.

Traders are encouraged to make a shopping list for the cyclical re-opening names you are interested in trading / owning.  After this consolidation / bear flag in TLT plays out, we should again see a rush into cyclicals / value / re-opening.  We’ve seen several of these violent sector rotations already this year. Let’s be ready for the next one.  But for now, as yields either drop or remain docile, tech should continue to do well.

I think the backdrop remains bullish for the reasons cited below.

  • Bullish Tailwinds
    • New Highs are bullish ; not Bearish
    • The run up into the next earnings cycle is usually bullish
    • Seasonality:  15 of the last 16 Aprils saw price on SPY go higher
    • TLT / Rates.  Rates have taken a breather but IMO it is a pause before rates head higher. THat would be bullish commodities, cyclicals, banks. Potentially bearish high-flier bubble stocks but we’ll suspend judgement until that day comes.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

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