Before the Bell Sept 27

 Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT  AMZN  GOOGL NFLX  USO

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of Sept 27

  • Monday – Durable Goods, Dallas Fed MFG index
  • Tuesday – International Trade, Wholesale inventories, Case – Shiller
  • Wednesday – Pending Home Sales, Oil inventories
  • THursday – GDP, Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, NatGas inventories.
  • Friday – PMI and ISM numbers, construction spending, Consumer sentiment.

Bond Rate Regime shift

We’ve moved significantly higher in bond yield rates post the FOMC meeting on Wed. of last week.  We blew through 1.40% and now even premarket we are trading above 1.5% on the 10 year. THis is going to pressure tech and bubble names and favor the cyclicals, banking, re-opening, reflation names. Although they may very well underperform, I think mega cap tech does ok as these names have great earnings support unlike the bubble names that are long big dreams, but short on actually earnings.

Traders should focus attention on the Small caps continue to work higher. My expectation is for price to hold $224 on any pull back and to test $233 / $234 on the upside.  THe key to the thesis is for a gentle rise in rates and at the very least rates holding 1.3% on the 10 year.   If rates break hard below 1.3% it will be a big headwind to the IWM trade.  Another potential headwind is for covid to re-emerge to the front page of the headlines throwing cold water on the re-opening trade.

$USO OIL ETF

Weekly breakout into a big volume/ price void points to big upside potential to 70. I like the idea of being long against 50.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 Min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

 

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