Before the Bell October 27

Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Major earnings week ahead as FATMAAN reports.

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Still a Bull  

Until price gives us a signal or the indicators give us a red flag condition, I want to be hunting for long trades. That doesn’t mean you can’t have a couple active shorts in your trading account….. there are bearish set ups in even the most robust Bull market. But, they are harder to find and harder to get performance out of during bull phases.  Remember the Jesse Liver more adage about assessing market conditions.  If market conditions are bullish, be mostly long; in bearish conditions mostly short. Sounds simple but that is the goal.

We need FATMAAN to help us decide or re-confirm that we are in a bull market. If, after these guys report thay are either stable or rising, it will be hard for the market to drop appreciably.  If FATMAAN rolls over then we will need to re-assess.

Macro Data Releases Week of October 25

  • Monday – Chicago Fed Activity index; Dallas Fed MFG index
  • Tuesday – CaseShiller housing index; Multiple Housing data points; Consumer sentiment; Richmond Fed Mfg Index; Money Supply at 1pm
  • Wednesday – Mortgage applications; Durable Goods; Intl Trade; Retail inventories; Wholesale inventories, Oil inventories, 5 yr bond auction 1pm
  • Thursday –  GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending home sales; NatGas inventories; 7 yr bond Auction 1pm
  • Friday –  Employment Cost index; Personal Income; Chicago PMI; UM Consumer Sentiment

Pre-Market Prep Websites

I was asked what websites I use for premarket prep.  No secret, I will share them but part of the value in getting this note is to gain some efficiency and focus in your routine. That said you’re more than welcome to visit and use the websites I find helpful

Bloomberg / Seeking Alpha for headlines and updates on Foreign Markets.   Briefing.com / Stock Market Watch   For premarket movers and earnings results.    Earnings Whispers for earnings calendars.  Most of the “Market Insights” come from The Market Ear. Macro calendar’s are from Econoday.  I sift twitter for interesting graphics and leads to stories that I can subsequently follow up on.

That’s about all I can think of……….if more come to mind, I will pass them along.  Hope it helps.

Market Insights

More on ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )

From China

Figure 1 shows  China is rationing fuel in certain markets.   The graph below shows both private and public SPR for oil liquids. As you can see, they’ve been in steady draw down mode. At some point they’ll have to do some serious buying to keep things stabilized.

AOC thrilled that NYC Pension Funds declare war on Hydrocarbons; divesting $50B

SF Gas prices a couple ticks off ATH’s

Production / Demand and Rig Count

WTI prices having no effect on Rig Count which are at the lows.   No Supply response coming. 

Coal Inventory at Utilities are at 30 year lows  (  BTU / ARCH among others )

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 Min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

 

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