Before the Bell Oct 4

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT  AMZN  GOOGL NFLX  SMH

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of October 4

  • Monday – Vehicle Sales, Factory Orders, US – China Trade Representative set to accuse China of not fulfilling Trump Era Trade agreement.
  • Tuesday – OPEC+ meeting, Intl Trade, PMI Composite final, ISM Services final, Redbook
  • Wednesday – Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment,  Oil inventories
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims, NatGas Inventory
  • Friday – Sept Jobs Report, Wholesale Inventories.

Relief Rally or Durable Low?

While Friday’s bounce was certainly welcomed after several days of steady selling.  We are heading into a strong seasonal period so I’d like to think that we are headed higher longer term. For the here and now, for me to feel more secure that we’ve put in a durable bottom, I’d like to see the 50ema’s recaptured.   THe IWM has already done it. If both SPY and QQQ can put in healthy candles and take out the next levels of resistance, it will make the charts much more constructive.

My current thesis is that we’ve entered a rising rate environment and that rates will likely rise into year’s end.  THis should be a headwind to hi-valuation tech and a tailwind for Financials, energy, materials and industrials.  Also other micro segments should do well on the re-opening.  Cruise lines, Airlines, Hotels, Travel / booking sites, Restaurants.  Refer to the EQRR ETF detailed below as a simple read on how the thesis is playing out.

$EQRR ETF – Rising Rate Environment

Here is an ETF that tracks with a rising rate environment. Although because of it’s ultra light volume I dont consider it tradable, it can be used to monitor if/ how the rising rate narrative is working.  Of special note is the weighting used shown in the annotations.   Traders can use this to focus attention on those sectors most levered to rising rates.

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY Daily

SPY 2 hour

QQQ Daily

QQQ 2 Hour

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

 

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