Before the Bell Nov 8

Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX  SMH ARKK  $TNX  TLT  $VIX

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of November 8

  • Monday – Clarita and Powell both speak today but nothing much expected
  • Tuesday – NFIB small business optimism index, FOMC Bullard, PPI final,  10 year bond Auction 1pm
  • Wednesday – CPI, Jobless Claims, ATL Fed inflation expectations, Oil Inventories 10.30,  NatGas inventories noon  30 yr bond auction.
  • THursday – Veteran’s Day. Governmental Offices will be closed but Market will be open
  • Friday – Consumer Sentiment, JOLTs

Greed Gone Wild

Greed is good, but it can go too far. Not a reason to bail out but certainly a reason to watch your overall exposure / risk and to harvest embedded gains on a regular basis.

  • Look to FATMAAN and TSLA in particulars for clues.
    • TSLA has become a speculative hotbed as the gamma squeeze crowd has migrated from juicing no name stocks GME, AMC, and CAR to a market heavy weight.
    • TSLA might be a real good proxy for speculative risk appetite. If it cracks badly, could mark a top.
    • Note the stock is under selling pressure pre-market as the Twitter-verse thinks Elon should sell 10% / $21B worth of stock.
    • As noted in the video, $1170 looks like an important level for bulls to recapture and hold. Below is  a big air pocket of about $100 before support comes in.
  • Crypto may also serve as a risk appetite monitor.  up a whopping 5% premarket. 

Market Insights

What’s wrong with ARKK?

Let’s see……TSLA is ARKK’s largest holding.  TSLA has gone parabolic.  ARKK has been trading like garbage and is not even really close to even breaking out let along showing any kind of leadership.  Now, based on Musk’s Twitter Poll, He may be set to sell $21B in TSLA stock.  I can only assume if there is a pull back in TSLA, it will most likely been seen to a greater degree in ARKK.  Watch it as a proxy if the TSLA options seem a little too daunting.

BuyBack window opens

As the graphic shows, if companies have a buy back program, they’ll be wide open to buy through the end of the year.

Stan Druckenmiller loses $3B in 6 weeks and didn’t learn a thing.

Fed Balance sheet marches to ATH’s and PUT hate reaches extremes

The Russell

An impressive breakout on the Russell’s weekly chart. The breakout is impressive, but take note of the PPO bull crossover.  A hugely bullish set up after a PPO momentum reset at the zero line. Also note how infrequently the PPO crossovers happens on the weekly timeframe. RSI never lost the 50 line during the reset. Classic bull market action.  T1 = $255

More on ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )

Land- Use Intensity 

Wind  and Solar are pretty land intensive.  By comparison, Nuclear is a pin-prick.

  • The Graphic is old, but nothing has changed.  If you’ve ever passed by a solar panel or wind mill farm, you instantly notice how much land they take. I dont think it is a disqualifying factor, but at some point it has to be part of the equation.  It’s something i never really thought of before  saw the graphic.

A picture is worth a 1000 words

While the graph most certainly is true, the problem is we could have constructed the same graphic with “withdraw from Afghanistan” in the middle.  Everyone agreed is was time to get out, but the when and how were botched.  The “when” is the problem with the uranium trade. Politicians, Greenies and utility companies may all agree to a Nuclear, carbon-free future beginning this afternoon, but if it takes 11 years for a permit, we may be here a while. Make sure you’ve got a long time horizon on your trade or commit to tactically trading within a rising trend.

 

Forbes:  Biden / Granholm signal more pain at the pump.  Read it HERE

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 Min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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