Before the Bell Nov 30

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA  AAPL AMZN NFLX GOOGL SMH ARKK ARKG ARKF

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Although earnings season is on the downhill, lots of interesting and important names this week including CRM, ZS, OKTA, SPLK, SNOW, CRWD, DG, DOCU, ULTA, OLLI, HIBB, BIG, FIVE, VEEV, PVH

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x- 1.5x to reduce run time without loss of clarity.

Find the video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of November 29

  • Monday – Pending home sales; Dallas Fed MFG survey
  • Tuesday – Redbook, Case-Shiller, House Price index, Chicago Fed, Consumer Confidence, JPOW speech w/ Yellen 10am
  • Wednesday – ADP / PMI / ISM / Construction Spending, Oil inv.  Beige Book
  • Thursday – Auto Sales; Challenger Job cuts; Jobless Claims; NatGas inv
  • Friday – Jobs Report; Factory Orders; ISM Services

HeadFake

Covid headline risk hits over night sending equities lower.  The key here for traders is 1. don’t panic  2. Don’t load up on PUTs into the teeth of the sell off with the oscillations and many other metrics are oversold.  Instead, location key support areas and look for a reversal. More detail inside the video.

VIX  Pops

As of 5.30 this morning, the VIX is trading around 27.  Close observers from yesterday may notice that I made a slight tweak to the chart. I added a band of resistance between 29 & 30.  Going back almost a year, 30 has contained all Vol events. Now with this mornings move we should be in the middle of the upper regime for Vol.

  • If we get a big flush  / panic selling that pushes the VIX up near 30, it would be a logical place to go short Volatility unless of course you think we go into a Doom Loop where every headline is worse that the one before
  • Look for Confluences.  If price is plunging they’ll be a point where it stops going down…usually at a level we’ve already identified.   When that happens, check out the VIX. If its up in that band of resistance 29-30 coupled with technical support, then you’re likely to have a tradable bottom.

The Oscillators are Oversold

Yesterday’s price action really did not change the posture of the oscillators.  Both remain in oversold territory and thus now is not the place to be panic buying of PUTs. The risk of a snap back are greatly elevated.  Sure, if you’re nimble, you can buy Puts with the intention of scalping a few points…no problem there.  I just dont see the VIX being able to hold 30 with the oscillators in this oversold area.  I have “don’t fight NYMO” carved into my desktop. $NYMO stands undefeated.

 

“Yes, have my bazooka ready.”

“Our plan is to panic all the sheep into loading the boat with Puts, then rip their faces off.

The next time you hear from me we’ll be at peak fear.  Be ready for the reversal; no excuses.”

Market Insights

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 Min

IWM Daily

IWM 2 hour

 

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