Before the Bell Nov 18

Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA  AAPL AMZN NFLX GOOGL SMH ARKG XBI IBB GM

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of November 15

  • Monday – Biden-Xi Virtual Summit; Empire MFG; Biden expected to sign Infrastructure Bill
  • Tuesday – Retail Sales; Import/Export Prices; Industrial Production; Business Inventories; Housing Index; 3 FOMC speakers; RIVN options set to open
  • Wednesday – Housing Starts; Oil inventories; 20 yr Bond Auction; 5 FOMC speakers
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims; Philly Fed; NatGas Inventory; Leading Economic Indicators; KC Fed; 4 FOMC speakers
  • Friday – Rig Count

Keep Buying

While there are always concerns, the bear case is thin.  Below you’ll see that the relative performance in the defensive sectors of the market are under performing. Also we are in a strong seasonal period with a good chace for a strong positive run into year’s end with a chase for performance by the big boys.  Also, the Buy-Back windows have opened so that is a positive as well.

Defensive Sector relative performance is trending down

Defensive portions of the market are locked in relative performance downtrends. If traders were wanting to go toward a RISK OFF look, you’d see a rotation into defensive sectors and you’d see upticks / trend changes in these ratios. We don’t see that at this time.  Therefore from this perspective, you want to continue to remain focused on the offensive sectors.

Half of Trading Success 

A big part of trading success is knowing sectors to avoid and sectors where you want to lean-in long.  As the relative performance charts below illustrate,  both large cap and small cap biotechs  have been in prolonged relative performance downtrends.  Does that mean you cant catch lightning in a bottle with a well timed MRNA trade?  Of course it doesnt.  You can usually find a winner in a junk group, but those will be rare. Birds of a feather usually flock together.

ARKG – ARK Genomics on the Edge

ARK Genomics, which is focused at the small cap end of the biotech space, peaked out in Jan /Feb 2021 and has been sliding ever since. As you can see, price is at a critical spot. Much below $70 and think this thing fails very quickly.  Why?  Look at the massive void below price on the Weekly chart.   It’s a long way down with very little technical support. Set yourself an alarm somewhere around $70 and be ready to go on the short side.

More on ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 Min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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