Before the Bell Nov 16

Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX  SMH $COPPER GDX GLD EEM $USD

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the video HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of November 15

  • Monday – Biden-Xi Virtual Summit; Empire MFG; Biden expected to sign Infrastructure Bill
  • Tuesday – Retail Sales; Import/Export Prices; Industrial Production; Business Inventories; Housing Index; 3 FOMC speakers; RIVN options set to open
  • Wednesday – Housing Starts; Oil inventories; 20 yr Bond Auction; 5 FOMC speakers
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims; Philly Fed; NatGas Inventory; Leading Economic Indicators; KC Fed; 4 FOMC speakers
  • Friday – Rig Count

Dollar Wrecking Ball

Quietly, since putting in a double bottom low at 89.50 in June, the $USD has moved steadily higher. From a technical view, the double bottom low structure has triggered and projects a measured move to 98.50. Price has also taken out 95.50. If it holds this week, the door would be open for a move to 97.50. The conventional view is that a strong Dollar is a wrecking ball for EEM markets that hold a lot of Dollar denominated debt and the commodity / precious metal / oil  complex because thee are settled in Dollars. Curiously commodities and metals have moved higher in the face of a rising Dollar.  While down recently $COPPER has held its bid.  Watch EEM. While not dramatic, it has been in decline since peaking out in June at the $USD lows.   See Additional $USD Graphics in Market Insights section

Gold continues to hold a Bid 

Price triggered it’s double bottom structure on the break above $171 resistance. The measured move projects price up above $181. Premarket shows gold futures up another $10 so if that holds it will do a lot to secure $174 as support and anyone tactically trading gold can move their syop up to just below $174. Longer-term traders can simply be long. Indicators are supporting higher prices. While I don’t like the media coverage of the gold move, it may have a side benefit of generating a little FOMO among traders.

Gold Miners plow ahead 

While a check back to the 200ema at $33.50 wouldn’t be surprising, if anyone on the outside was looking in, I’d be a buyer there. Otherwise price looks headed to a test of $36 where resistance and a gap reside. The indicators look strong and look supportive of higher prices.

Market Insights

The graphics are self explanatory and come via Market Ear

First panel time axis cut off.   Chart spans   1971 to Date

More on ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )

Remember that in the past I’ve noted the strong correlation between SPY and Oil.  Generally they move together.  The panels below show an emerging disconnect.   Watch it closely.  If you’re long SPY you don’t want to see oil do a nose dive.  THe only exception may be an oil pull back due to an SPR dump which I think would be viewed as artificial and temporary ( not related to lack of demand / slowing economy )

OPEC+ / Russia:  Don’t expect any added supply any time soon

Signals from OPEC and Russia, despite pleas from Pres. Biden, continue to indicate they are quite content to leave production where it is.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 Min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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