Before the Bell Nov 12

Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX  SMH Uranium SRUUF  Rare Earths

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

No Video today…………will return soon

Macro Data Releases Week of November 8

  • Monday – Clarita and Powell both speak today but nothing much expected
  • Tuesday – NFIB small business optimism index, FOMC Bullard, PPI final,  10 year bond Auction 1pm
  • Wednesday – CPI, Jobless Claims, ATL Fed inflation expectations, Oil Inventories 10.30,  NatGas inventories noon  30 yr bond auction.  Rivian IPO
  • THursday – Veteran’s Day. Governmental Offices will be closed but NYSE will be open; Bond Market Closed
  • Friday – Consumer Sentiment, JOLTs

A little Soggy; Watch Cannabis

With the Bond Market closed for Veteran’s Day on Thursday, the market traded in a narrow range in somewhat of a holding pattern. Prices have held key support thus far across the indexes and FATMAAN names.  Not a lot to discuss via video so I let it go this morning.  Remember, today is a weekly OPEX so check your holdings for rogue positions you’ve forgotten about to avoid surprises.

Next week we have  the big Nov monthly expiration. Monthly OPEX weeks are usually bullish. I am still maintaining a bullish bias, but QQQ / SPY are on the edge. THey need to hold in to these levels or things could fall apart rather quickly. Stay active and watch your levels.

Watch Cannabis. THe stocks look to be making a bullish turn.  THe Republican led bill to legalize cannabis at the Federal level is set to move to the floor next week. Should be a lift to the sector if passed. It would relax banking standards and put Cannabis rules in the purview of State control. THe MSOS ETF is focused on Multi State operators and seems to be well positioned in the space. Sharp shooter can focus on indivudual names.  Also $SMG which has been previosly mentioned is showing exceptional strength.

Gamification reaches Broad Market.

A couple of charts that bring home just how many people are buying / trading weekly options. The second graphic shows the dominance of TSLA within the single stock option volume. Aside from simply a curiosity, increased concentration in certain stocks adds systemic risk to the system.  Remember how $HOOD got into trouble when the $GME turbulence hit the fan. Nobody quite knows where the risk lies behind the curtain but just as concentration adds risk to a portfolio, it adds risk to the system at large.

 

Market Insights

The graphics are self explanatory and come via Market Ear

More on ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust 

The big dynamic that has flipped the Uranium Market on its head is the opening of Sprott’s Physical Uranium Trust.  It is continuously issuing shares and taking the proceeds to buy physical uranium off the spot market. As the second graphic shows, Sprott now hold nearly 38million pounds of Uranium.  They’ve become a vacuum cleaner on the open market that is sopping up all the excess supply that has dogged the commodity for years. The thing about the trust is that it creates its own virtuous cycle. Inflows allow more Uranium purchases that takes more inventory off th emarket, which finds its way to a rising price.  Since inception, spot Uranium has gone from $30 to the low-mid 40’s.  As the world recognizes that a carbon-free planet will need nuclear a a component, we could be in the emerging days of the golden age of uranium.  One problem is that SRUFF is not optionable.  Those with limited funds are forced to play through other instruments.    Here are some of the tickers.   DNN / URA ETF / URNM ETF / CCJ / UEC / UUUU / UROY / NXE / LEU

Disclosure:  LONG  CCJ and URA   Tactically trading w/ a bullish bias.

Trading Ideas:  I think Uranium is a great candidate for low-intensity / IRA  holdings.  Focus on an ETF like $URA and geteither some LEAP options or the common and just let it grind away in a bullish price trend w/ positive fundamental backdrop.  Yes, you’ve always need to have a stop, but that goes for anything.  I believe its going higher.

 

Lithium

Lithium is central to the EV / green transformation case as it is a primary component of EV batteries. At a later date, I will do a more detailed treatment of the space, but for now, here are some of the tickers you can research on your own.. Tickers:   LIT / LTHM / LAC / PLL / SQM / ALB   Also Rare Earths:  REMX / MP

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

 

QQQ 2 Hour

QQQ 30 Min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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