Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA GBTC ETCG SMH GLD USO
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Earnings
As we move to the back half of earnings season we’ll see a lot more retailers and regional banks. Some big names of interest this week include AZO, JWN, NVDA, APPS, SNOW, OKTA, BBY, COST, CRM, DG, WDAY
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.
Find the Video HERE
Now What?
For a while, my base case has been that we were in a corrective phase with a series of lower highs. That has generally played out but we have not printed lower lows. THe strength has been in SPY while the QQQs underperform and IWM trapped in a narrow range. I still have SPY and QQQ on Daily sell signals and a sell signal on IWM pending but not yet triggered. If SPY takes out $418 and moves toward $420 then the bear case has significantly eroded. QQQ has more work to do. A first step would be closes above $330. Prices above $334 would significantly dent the bear case.
With May OPEX behind us, there is the chance of heightened volatility. Keep an eye on the VIX. 20 on the VIX is a good proxy to watch. Above and rising tilts things more bearish. Below and falling favors the bulls. I still favor Cyclicals, industrials, commodities and precious metals / miners over high-beta tech.
Crypto Update
$GBTC – Bitcoin
After the dramatic plunge on Wednesday, on Thursday, price put in a reflex rally back up to the 200ema. THat rally was faded hard and price dropped 7% on Friday. This chart sets up very simply. As long as price remains below the 200ema at $33, Bitcoin is in a bear market and is vulnerable to lower prices. Technically speaking, there is not much lateral support below. You can see the relative void on the volume / price histogram on the left. From a psychological standpoint, anyone who bought above $33 is trapped and underwater.
$ETCG Etherium
Price is now on the downside of a parabolic advance. I laid on the Fib retracements for reference. From that you can see price has already exceeded the 61.8% retracement and is sitting on a ledge at $39.50. A break below would target the 50ema at $33; from there the next level of technical support is $26ish. Bulls need to step in quickly or this could, and probably will, go much lower.
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest. SPY and QQQ are on Daily SELL signals.
SPY 2 hour
SPY 30 min
QQQ 2 hour
QQQ 30 min
IWM 2 hour
$IWM 30 Min
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