Before the Bell May 18

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH  WMT  HD  TGT   LOW   ARK Complex, market internals

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration –

In this dynamic market, holding onto biases can be deadly.  Stay fluid, stay flexible and float with price. You’ll make more money and the losses will be manageable.

Earnings

Lots of retail reporting over the next few weeks.

Today’s Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video HERE

Macro Data Releases Week of  May 16

  • Monday –  Nothing
  • Tuesday –  Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Prices, JPOW speaking at 2pm
  • Wednesday –  Housing starts, oil inventories, 20 yr bond auction
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims; Philly FED; NatGas; 10 yr TIPs Bond auction
  • Friday – Rig Count

Walmart Rollback 

Retail is beginning to fall apart beginning with a doomsday report from defensive retailer Walmart, and now just out, an equally bad report from higher end retailer Target. Inflation is digging in on the consumer and they’re pulling in their horns on spending as they move to an “essentials only” mindset. I expect further pressure on XRT and the restaurant sector.  If premier retailers $WMT and $TGT cant figure out the mix for consumers, how can less sophisticated retailers in more discretionary segments hit the nail on the head?  Cant see apparel names and restaurants escaping this downturn.

Oscillator Update

Saxo Theme Basket Performance

Macro Framework Spring / Summer 2022

Find the Blog Post HERE

Earnings Season & Bracket Trades

As earnings season kicks into gear, a reminder that this is prime time for Bracket Trades. Bracket Trades are those trades created when a stock gaps up or down from a news driven event. Bracket Trades are set up as “2nd day trades” where you alarm the high and low of the prior day’s trading range, then patiently wait for price to either break lower or higher from the range.  You then follow price out of the range. I will do my best to help identify them for you, but you can easily find them yourself by doing a sort for “GAP ups” and “GAP Down” on your trading platform.  I add additional filters for only stocks above $10 and at least 500,000 shares traded. You can add additional filters to cut down the sort further. Generally speaking, stocks favor continuing in the direction of the gap higher or lower.

You can find out more about Bracket Trades in the video Run the Player at 1.5x      HERE.

 

INDEX CHARTS

Use the following pivots and levels in your active and swing trading. Added color is provided on the video.  Link above.

This week, with May OPEX on Friday, its all about follow through for this emerging potential rally. All the charts look similar in that they printed bullish hammer candles  on the weekly, with promising 3 bar reversals on the daily. A red day today would not ruin everything but a very bearish day would certainly plant seeds of doubt in the rally. Wouldnt be surprised if the Thursday / Friday bulls suddenly lose their conviction.

SPY Daily

SPY 1 hr

QQQ Daily

QQQ 1hr

IWM Daily

IWM 1 hr

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