Tickers: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Inspiration – Preparation is Key
Suitable for framing. For best results, prominently display within plain sight from your trading desk, then take action.
Earnings
Some interesting ones this week including. XPEV, ASO, LOVE, MU, LULU, RH, CHWY, FIVE, PAYX, PATH,
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
The Companion Video Will Return Tomorrow
Macro Data Releases Week of Mar 28
- Monday – Intl Trade, Retail & Wholesale inventories; Dallas FED MFG; 5yr note auction 1pm
- Tuesday – Case-Shiller Home Prices; FHFA Home prices; Cons. Confidence; JOLTS; 7yr Notes 1pm
- Wednesday – Mort Appls;ADP; GDP; oil inv
- Thursday – Challenger Job Cuts; Jobless Claims; Personal income & outlays; Chicago PMI, NatGas report.
- Friday – March Jobs Report; PMI MFG final; ISM Mfg; Construction spending
FOMC Speakers scheduled everyday except Monday the 28th.
Bears hang out at the Last Chance Saloon
Credit the Bulls on this sharp rally. The bears have been on the run the whole time. Looking ahead, there may be some volatility with Q1 rebalancing to be aware of as we head toward the close of the quarter on Thursday. Take a close look at the charts below. Yellow flags all over the place. The % of stocks above their 20ema are reaching extremes. The Oscillators are stretched above 60. Just from a pure technical view, I am expecting, at a minimum, a technical pullback to present itself very shortly. As mentioned here over the last couple of weeks. I think they can hold things together through THursday but then all bets are off. Keep your longs on a tight leash and know where you want to get out.
Percent above the 20ema across market Segments.
The percent of stocks above their 20ema across market segments are reaching extremes. SPX is at 94%; NDX is at 99%. Both are among the highest readings on the chart. Caution is warranted.
Oscillator Update
Stretched with both oscillators above 60. We can go higher from here, but historically speaking, the risk / reward for staying long is greatly diminished. Go back in time as far as you like, when these oscillators get stretched, its not a matter of if but when the snapback happens.
FATMAAN Charts & Pivots
$FB
Use $230 as your pivot. While above your target is a back touch of the 50ema at $235.09. If the 50ema is recaptured, it would be a great place to recalibrate by harvesting profit and resetting your pivot.
$AAPL
A break and hold above $179 targets the all time highs at $182.50
$TSLA
$1100 marks the halfway point of the prior $200 wide trading range. Use $1100 as your pivot. While above your target is $1200 at the prior high.
$MSFT
Use $315 as your pivot with an upside target of $321. I expect that $321 will be tough resistance because it marks the bottom side of the upper trading range.
$AMZN
$3400 is your pivot to use with the first upside target being $3550 top of the box, then the ATH’s at $3725
$GOOGL
While above $2840 your OH target is $2920 then the ATH at $3000.
$NFLX
I think the best R/R trade on NFLX is to get long on a recapture of the 50ema. If that technical event happens, your upside targets are $460 at the bottom of the gap and then a gap fill to $500.
$SMH
3 important levels on the chart. $280 is your pivot. $290 is the upside target at the bottom of the prior trading range. $270 would be an important level to hold on any pullback with all the ema’s clustered below.
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.
SPY Daily
SPY 2hr
SPY 30min
QQQ Daily
QQQ 2hr
QQQ 30 min
IWM Daily
IWM 2 hr
IWM 30 min
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