Tickers: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH DOCU COUP ARKF ARKG ARKK ARKW
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Inspiration – The Art of Doing Nothing
One of the harder things for me, and maybe you as well, is to do nothing while the market is open and the opportunity stream is flowing over you. Staying quiet while the market serves up sub-optimal, low risk-reward trades takes practice and dare I say skill. If you’re an active, trade from home player, I have a challenge for you. Sit in front of your screen all day watching the stocks you most often trade and do nothing but take notes on your observations of the price movement. As important is to write down your psychological state of mind as the day unfolds. Your skin will most likely be crawling before even an hour of the trading day has passed. It may get so bad that you may even consider starting to smoke before noon. When you are able to control your urges to trade, you’ll have made real progress. I wrote a blog article on this topic. Find it HERE
Earnings
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
Find the Companion Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of Mar 14
- Monday – Nothing
- Tuesday – PPI Final, Empire St. MFG, Redbook
- Wednesday – Retail Sales; Import/ Export Prices; Bus. Inv.; Housing Mkt index; Oil inv. ; FOMC Announcement 2pm presser 2.30pm
- Thursday – Housing Starts; Jobless Claims; Philly Fed MFG; Industrial Production; NatGas inv
- Friday – Existing Home Sales; Leading Economic indicators. March OPEX biggest since 2019 $3T roll off
Let’s GO ! Luck of the Irish
Yesterday JPOW worked his magic at the FOMC presser and adequately convinced market participants that the FED can thread the needle that it can tame inflation without cratering the economy or markets. Time will tell. For now it’s all about seeing if we have follow through on the rally today and into tomorrow when we have a big OPEX. Expect high volatility to remain mostly in place through the end of the week. The flow dynamics of the option derivatives will have a lot to say whether we can extend the rally or if we stall. Next week, after the options run off, will be the real test as we will discover if everybody rushes back in to buy put protection on this baby bounce or if buyers can get a little FOMO going.
As the rest of the week unfolds, keep in mind that the baseline case is bear market rally. There is zero evidence in the charts that we bottomed. What we can say is that the most recent lows occurred with bullish divergences and has set the stage for a potentially sharp, tradable, counter-trend rally. Stay nimble! This isn’t an all-in long moment. If the rally plays out we will most certainly participate but just keep in mind that post -FOMC moves can be massive head fakes.
Note: In bear market rallies, you’ll often see the “junk” outperform. These names have a lot of short interest and most often have fallen the most so you’ll see a bigger bounce. If you are viewing this bounce merely as a trading opportunity, don’t be afraid to buy a bubble / ponzi name if the technicals look good. For instance $ARKK was up 10% while “quality” names were up 3%.
Bracket Trade for $COUP
Traders can be long against Yesterday’s high at $81 in hopes for a gap fill to $90.
Bracket Trade for DOCU
Like $COUP, $DOCU still has a gap to fill at $94. You can set an alarm at $83.50 and use that as your buy trigger.
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.
SPY Daily
SPY 2hr
SPY 30min
QQQ Daily
QQQ 2hr
QQQ 30 min
IWM Daily
IWM 2 hr
IWM 30 min
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