Before the Bell Jun 30

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM BTC FIVE  $COPPER $FCX

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration from Livermore

 

The path of least resistance is lower. The bear market rallies have become weaker and weaker. We need to be on guard for reversals etc but adherance to stops will mitigate pain.  Watch the FATMAAN names closely. THey have held up very well all things considered. If / when they start to go you will see a big drop in the market averages.

  

 Earnings

 

Today’s Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video HERE    Will return

 

Macro Data Releases Week of  June 27

  • Monday – Durable Goods, Pending homes sales, Dallas Fed, 5 yr note auction 1pm
  • Tuesday – Intl Trade, Retail & wholesale inventories; Consumer Confidence; Richmond Fed; 7 yr Notes 1pm
  • Wednesday – GDP 8.30. ; Jerome Powell 9am, oil inventory
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims; Personal income / outlays; Chicago PMI, NatGas Inv.
  • Friday – PMI MFG, ISM MFG, Construction spending.

 

Overnight Gloom 

Futures are down between 1.5-1.75%  pushed lower with BTC down almost 7% and Europe having a rocky session. Not helping is the fact that despite reporting earnings less than a month ago $RH was out last night revising 2022 numbers sharply lower. This morning before the bell we’ve got some important macro numbers.  Jobless claims, PCE , and Chicago PMI.  These numbers, especially the PCE / inflation numbers could really move the market. With the down move overnight coupled with the potential market moving inflation print, it could be a volatile session.  Yesterdays action was muted so we can use the same pivots and levels across the board on the indexes and FATMAAN names. Keep in mind we will likely open with a gap down leaving a gap overhead to contend with throughout the day and following sessions.

 

Macro Framework Spring / Summer 2022

Find the Blog Post HERE

Earnings Season & Bracket Trades

As earnings season kicks into gear, a reminder that this is prime time for Bracket Trades. Bracket Trades are those trades created when a stock gaps up or down from a news driven event. Bracket Trades are set up as “2nd day trades” where you alarm the high and low of the prior day’s trading range, then patiently wait for price to either break lower or higher from the range.  You then follow price out of the range. I will do my best to help identify them for you, but you can easily find them yourself by doing a sort for “GAP ups” and “GAP Down” on your trading platform.  I add additional filters for only stocks above $10 and at least 500,000 shares traded. You can add additional filters to cut down the sort further. Generally speaking, stocks favor continuing in the direction of the gap higher or lower.

You can find out more about Bracket Trades in the video Run the Player at 1.5x      HERE.

Copper & Copper Stocks

Copper has broken down from a long consolidation top. But when we look at $FCX it is still clinging to its consolidation range. A weekly close below $30 would open up a $14 measured move lower. Clearly the base metal complex is showing recession fears that will kill demand. I like  FCX short against $30 on a break below. Other names to look at are $SCCO and $TECK.

$FIVE

Retailer Five Below is already trading below it’s pre-covid high and below it’s high vol / price bar that has capped advances for a month. I think a break of $115 opens up a move to $98ish. Should $98 give way down the road, the covid lows will come into the focus. THat hypothetical probably only plays out in a deep, prolonged recession. First things first. I like $FIVE short on a break below $115 w/ a stop just above.

$BTC Bitcoin

Down $1200 as I write this. Watch this in conjunction with QQQ as they have closely tracked each other. The prior low was $17.600. A break below would open up much lower targets towards $13,500.

INDEX CHARTS

Use the following pivots and levels in your active and swing trading.

SPY Daily

SPY 1 hr

QQQ Daily

QQQ 1hr

IWM Daily

IWM 1 hr

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