Before the Bell July 8

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA  SMH  $USD TLT  USO BTU CAR KRE

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video  HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of July 6

  • Tuesday – IHS Markit Services PMI-Final, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
  • Wednesday – MBA Mortgage Applications Index, JOLTS-Job Openings, FOMC Minutes 2pm ( look for more robust debate around inflation )
  • Thursday – Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, EIA Crude Inventories, Consumer Credit
  • Friday – Wholesale Inventories; G20 Meeting Kickoff

$TNX / $TLT and Oil Flash Growth Scare

Bond yields have made a fast and dramatic move lower and have broken below the critical 1.3% support level.  That move is signaling that there is no expectation of inflation, or frankly, of even growth going forward. That may reflect that peak growth / re-opening has already passed or that the Covid Variant will be a drag on future expectations. Technically speaking, while below 1.3% support really does not come into play until 1.12% and then at that point, we’d be just a stone’s throw from a back test of 1%.

Over on TLT, we broke out above downtrend resistance and the 200ema.  I have dropped in the overhead resistance levels.  $155 looks like a particularly tough level.  I am long TLT and will be looking to close my position if / when price gets to that level.

Oil / USO

THe collapse of the OPEC+ talks have been a drag on oil prices as traders speculate that member states will open the spigots to flood the market.  OIL is highly correlated with SPY. So as long as oil is moving down, it will be hard for SPY to advance. I think there are structural forces in place that are bullish for oil. At a certain point, if we see a durable bottom being put in, I think it will make for a compelling buy the dip opportunity.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

Managing the Tape

  • Keep level-headed and your wits about you.
  • If you feel flustered, step away and compose yourself.
  • Manage level to level.  We are in a bull market. In order for the market to go down a lot, it has to go down a little. We will know when to be cautious or even bearish based on the levels.
  • If you are unsure of things, there is no shame in going flat and waiting for things to stabilize.
  • The most important thing is to RESPECT YOUR STOPS.   Accept the papercut and avoid more pain.   Live to trade another day. 

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min 

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

 

Get inspired, empowered and prepared.

Join us!

As the host of Trader’s Profit Compass, I work hard to inspire, empower, and prepare aspiring traders to face the markets with fortitude, quiet confidence and inner calm. It’s a protein-rich, sugar free environment without ego or judgement. While I can’t promise that joining our group will change your life, I’d like to think it will help your trading. Give it a spin!  Nothing to lose and potentially much to gain.

Our group of aspiring traders are into active swing trading using technical analysis to find objective, high-probability,  low-risk trades.  Using these processes we’ve been fortunate to be winning; not perfect but winning. If that is appealing to you, join us!  I’d like to think you’d benefit from the work.  You’ll get premium  content 6 times a week including a copy of my Daily Profit Compass, Weekend Profit Navigator, along with other actionable content delivered directly to your mailbox. You’ll even get an invite to our new trading room on SLACK.

Registration is simple and FREE   Visit our homepage  HERE

Spread the word?

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on pinterest
Pinterest

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Let's do this.

Subscribe to the Daily Profit Compass now. It’s 100% FREE.

Website powered by RapidWebLaunch