Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA SMH $USD TLT USO BTU CAR KRE
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Earnings
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.
Find the Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of July 6
- Tuesday – IHS Markit Services PMI-Final, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
- Wednesday – MBA Mortgage Applications Index, JOLTS-Job Openings, FOMC Minutes 2pm ( look for more robust debate around inflation )
- Thursday – Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, EIA Crude Inventories, Consumer Credit
- Friday – Wholesale Inventories; G20 Meeting Kickoff
$TNX / $TLT and Oil Flash Growth Scare
Bond yields have made a fast and dramatic move lower and have broken below the critical 1.3% support level. That move is signaling that there is no expectation of inflation, or frankly, of even growth going forward. That may reflect that peak growth / re-opening has already passed or that the Covid Variant will be a drag on future expectations. Technically speaking, while below 1.3% support really does not come into play until 1.12% and then at that point, we’d be just a stone’s throw from a back test of 1%.
Over on TLT, we broke out above downtrend resistance and the 200ema. I have dropped in the overhead resistance levels. $155 looks like a particularly tough level. I am long TLT and will be looking to close my position if / when price gets to that level.
Oil / USO
THe collapse of the OPEC+ talks have been a drag on oil prices as traders speculate that member states will open the spigots to flood the market. OIL is highly correlated with SPY. So as long as oil is moving down, it will be hard for SPY to advance. I think there are structural forces in place that are bullish for oil. At a certain point, if we see a durable bottom being put in, I think it will make for a compelling buy the dip opportunity.
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.
Managing the Tape
- Keep level-headed and your wits about you.
- If you feel flustered, step away and compose yourself.
- Manage level to level. We are in a bull market. In order for the market to go down a lot, it has to go down a little. We will know when to be cautious or even bearish based on the levels.
- If you are unsure of things, there is no shame in going flat and waiting for things to stabilize.
- The most important thing is to RESPECT YOUR STOPS. Accept the papercut and avoid more pain. Live to trade another day.
SPY 2 hour
SPY 30 min
QQQ 2 hour
QQQ 30 min
IWM 2 hour
$IWM 30 Min
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