Before the Bell July 13

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA SMH

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video  HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of July 12

  • Monday – Light….Couple of FOMC speakers
  • Tuesday – NFIB Sm. Biz Optimism; CPI ; Redbook; 30yr bond auction
  • Wednesday – PPI final; Atlanta Fed Inflation expectations; Oil inventory; Jerome Powell Capitol Hill Noon
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG; Empire State MFG; Import/ Export numbers; Industrial Production; EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Jerome Powell Capitol Hill 9.30am; EIA Crude Inventories, Consumer Credit
  • Friday – Retail Sales; Business Inventories; Consumer Sentiment

Banks Report

Big Banks $GS and $JPM kick off the reporting season this morning before the bell.  No banking expert here but I am not sure these institutions are much of a gauge of what is going on with the economy anymore.  Loan to cash ratio is at some of the lowest levels ever seen. The economy is not going to these institutions for loans to grow their businesses. THe banks have so much cash, they are giving it back to the FED at night to the tune of nearly a trillion dollars.  Sure M&A will be robust as liquidity, at nearly zero rates, fuel transaction volume.  Capital markets should be good as trading / markets remain healthy. Also we’ll probably see loan loss reserves come off as the monies set aside in 2020 for bad loans are no longer needed. We may also hear added details on divvy increases / buy back programs but I think most of that was announced after the stress tests.  Bottom line…I expect good results. THat said I am more interested in how the group trades after the numbers are out.

FATMAAN Earnings

July 20:  NFLX / TSLA   July 27: GOOGL / MSFT      July 28: FB / AMZN / AAPL

 

A Simple Bull Market / Bull Stock Checklist

Being a fear-monger is popular. Bearish tweets and doomsters are more widely followed than a tweet saying “stay long”.  Use this simple checklist to tell if the market or a particular stock you follow is in bull mode.  THe list is not intended to be the end-all checklist, but if you find  yourself saying yes to most of the questions, you can certainly come out from under your desk and delay subscribing to “Doomsday Prepper” magazine.

  1. Is Price at an All-time high?  All time highs are bullish, not bearish
  2. Is price above the 8ema and 20ema?  Price above the fast moving averages is as bullish as it gets
  3. Are the ema’s bullishly stacked? if from top to bottom the 8 is above the 20, 20 above the 50 and 50 above the 200 tells you the trend is higher and in bull mode.
  4. Is the slope of the moving averages positive?  If the moving averages are tilted positive and rising; its bullish
  5. Have any trend lines been violated?  Draw a trendline connecting the lows of the recent trend. As long as price stays above, its bullish. If a trendline is broken, pay closer attention.
  6. Are the indicators operating in their bullish regimes?   If RSI is above 50 and PPO momentum is above the zero line, the indicators are bullish.

Use these simple questions to ally any fears you have about the market or favorite stock but confirming it’s bull market status.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

 

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