Before the Bell July 12

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA SMH  $TNX TLT  USO $NYA50R

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video  HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of July 12

  • Monday – Light….Couple of FOMC speakers
  • Tuesday – NFIB Sm. Biz Optimism; CPI ; Redbook; 30yr bond auction
  • Wednesday – PPI final; Atlanta Fed Inflation expectations; Oil inventory; Jerome Powell Capitol Hill Noon
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG; Empire State MFG; Import/ Export numbers; Industrial Production; EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Jerome Powell Capitol Hill 9.30am; EIA Crude Inventories, Consumer Credit
  • Friday – Retail Sales; Business Inventories; Consumer Sentiment

Earnings Season Kickoff

Big Banks begin reporting tomorrow with Goldman before the bell. Two weeks ago we discussed the bullish nature of the earnings season lead in plus the bullish seasonals of the first 2 weeks of July. So far so good. Last week resolved bullish. We have one more week and I want to lean bullish this week.  After that we’ve got the lead in to earnings with FATMAAN complex. I want to generally be bullish the group into earnings, but be out prior to earnings.

FATMAAN Earnings

July 20:  NFLX / TSLA

July 27: GOOGL / MSFT

July 28: FB / AMZN / AAPL

Breadth Stinks

The market is being held together by FATMAAN which represents 25% of the market. THe chart below shows breadth particularly weak as only 40% of stocks are above their 50ema’s. A rebound in this metric would show broader participation and a healthier backdrop for equities.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

Managing the Tape

  • Keep level-headed and your wits about you.
  • If you feel flustered, step away and compose yourself.
  • Manage level to level.  We are in a bull market. In order for the market to go down a lot, it has to go down a little. We will know when to be cautious or even bearish based on the levels.
  • If you are unsure of things, there is no shame in going flat and waiting for things to stabilize.
  • The most important thing is to RESPECT YOUR STOPS.   Accept the papercut and avoid more pain.   Live to trade another day. 

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

 

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