Before the Bell July 1

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA  SMH AMD CORN CANE WEAT SOYB DBA

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video  HERE

Seasonality Spike

The past 2 weeks mark some of the weakest seasonality on the calendar for equities. But guess what; it’s always darkest before the dawn.  We now enter the historically strong first two weeks of July just before earnings season kicks off.  In fact the first 2 weeks of July have been the strongest on average since 1950.  Although this factoid gives a reference point for optimism, we dont trade historical averages, we trade charts. Keep that in mind.

Macro Data Releases Today

  • Challenger Job Cut Report 7.30
  • Jobless Claims 8.30
  • Final MFG PMI 9.45
  • Final ISM MFG  and Construction Spending   10am
  • NatGas Inventories  10.30
  • OPEC +   production decision and outlook for global demand………not sure of timing
  • Fed Speakers   Bostic at 2pm

AG Crop Price Spike

A perfect storm of data pumped renewed life into the food price inflation narrative by spiking the grains limit up in Wednesday Trade.   Lower than expected planted acreage,  grain inventories at 6-7 year lows, plus a heat wave across the heartland conspired to dramatically lift the outlook for prices.  I let my focus wane on this trade as the consolidation took place. Now, put it back on the radar. Could be a one day wonder but could also be the beginning of an extended run.  With oil n NatGas running, the stabilization of Copper and the industrials, the spike in grains will bring back the extended inflation narrative into the fall.

Check out the Video for reviews of Sugar, corn, soybeans, wheat and the composite Ag Grain ETF $DBA

OPEC+

News out of OPEC indicate a bump of 400K BBL / Day in production vs 500K expected is lifting oil prices this morning. While other commodities consolidated  over the past 6 weeks, oil has extended its bull run unabated. Now as we’ve discussed, NatGas recently broke out and is running.  Also NatGas is spiking in the EuroZone and in Asia, further supporting the global run in NatGas prices.   Record temperatures in the West are driving NatGas demand as those with A/C have them cranked to the max.    NatGas inventories are at 10.30 this morning.

June Jobs Report / 3 day holiday

The June jobs report is tomorrow and has the potential to be a market moving event. Additionally we are heading into a 3 day weekend.   Review your holdings and determine how much risk you want to hold into the jobs print and holiday weekend.  I have backed off my exposure and am taking a conservative approach.  I will be open to taking intraday shots if the indexes begin to move but dont plan to hold big duration exposure over the holiday. I will re-engage in a bigger way on Tuesday.   That is a personal call, not some big call on the market.  No sell signals exist.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min 

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

 

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