Tickers: SPY QQQ IWM META AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH ARKF ARKG ARKK ARKW IBB XBI
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Trading is also a marathon. It’s a race between learning enough to become consistently profitable and running out of money. Slow and steady wins the race.
About as dead a week in earnings as you can imagine.
Today’s Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
Find the Companion Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of July 4
- Monday – Holiday
- Tuesday – Auto Sales; Factory Orders;
- Wednesday – Mortgage Applications; PMI composite final; ISM services; JOLTS; FOMC Minutes
- Thursday – Challenger Job cuts; ADP; Int’l Trade; Jobless Claims; Oil & NatGas Inv; Bullard 1pm
- Friday – June Jobs Report
We’ve all been there. We look at all the junk we’ve accumulated and decide to blow it out in a yard sale. If the price is right you’ll find the buyers. Same is true in stocks. Yesterday the market was led by the Bubble / Ponzi / Unprofitable tech stocks that have been beaten down 70-90% over the last 6-8 months. This action is typically a combination of a short squeeze and those trying to call bottoms in the former darlings. I think there is potential for the rally to extend especially if the larger cap names participate along side these hyper-growth names. Stay long but keep a short leash on your longs and dont get over extended. For me the ARK complex is the way I like to play this group rather than hunting for individual names.
Macro Framework Spring / Summer 2022
Find the Blog Post HERE
Earnings Season & Bracket Trades
As earnings season kicks into gear, a reminder that this is prime time for Bracket Trades. Bracket Trades are those trades created when a stock gaps up or down from a news driven event. Bracket Trades are set up as “2nd day trades” where you alarm the high and low of the prior day’s trading range, then patiently wait for price to either break lower or higher from the range. You then follow price out of the range. I will do my best to help identify them for you, but you can easily find them yourself by doing a sort for “GAP ups” and “GAP Down” on your trading platform. I add additional filters for only stocks above $10 and at least 500,000 shares traded. You can add additional filters to cut down the sort further. Generally speaking, stocks favor continuing in the direction of the gap higher or lower.
You can find out more about Bracket Trades in the video Run the Player at 1.5x HERE.
A large part of our Medium to Longer term Bearish thesis is that global liquidity is shrinking. That is a very tough environment for stocks. As you can see from the charts below, liquidity is disappearing at a good clip. I am still viewing rallies as bear market rallies but ones that will eventually peter out and roll over. We dont want to guess or hypothesize too much though. We want to stay evidence based. We should be able to see a stall in any rally on the charts and take appropriate action to get on the right side of the trade.
IWM 1 hour
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