Before the Bell Jul 26

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration: 

Benefits of a drama-free, calm mind go well beyond the benefits of better, more objective and controlled trading. Your entire circle of influence will notice a dramatic, improved, and welcomed difference in your presence. You will also notice that those in your circle who you often find going into “tilt – mode” will be calmed by your influence. It will give them the opportunity to follow your lead.  It’s beyond the scope of this section, but briefly, one of the laws of thermodynamics is that the universe trends towards entropy. Entropy is a fancy word for chaos. Calming the mind takes constant work to keep things in order. Dont think that it is something you do as a one-time thing. Regular effort will be required.

 Earnings

Earnings reports kick into full gear this week.

Today’s Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video   Will Return 

  Macro Data Releases Week of  July 25

  • Monday – Chicago Fed; Dallas Fed; 2 yr Auction 1pm
  • Tuesday – Case-Shiller Home Prices; Consumer Confidence; New Homes Sales; Richmond Fed; 5 yr Auction 1pm
  • Wednesday – Durable Goods; Intl Trade; Pending Home sales; Oil inventory; FOMC 2pm; FOMC Presser 2.30pm
  • Thursday – GDP; Jobless Claims; NatGas Inv. ; KC Fed; 7 yr Auction 1pm
  • Friday – Inflation Numbers; Chicago PMI; UoM Consumer Sentiment

Macro Framework Spring / Summer 2022

Find the Blog Post HERE

Earnings Season & Bracket Trades

As earnings season kicks into gear, a reminder that this is prime time for Bracket Trades. Bracket Trades are those trades created when a stock gaps up or down from a news driven event. Bracket Trades are set up as “2nd day trades” where you alarm the high and low of the prior day’s trading range, then patiently wait for price to either break lower or higher from the range.  You then follow price out of the range. I will do my best to help identify them for you, but you can easily find them yourself by doing a sort for “GAP ups” and “GAP Down” on your trading platform.  I add additional filters for only stocks above $10 and at least 500,000 shares traded. You can add additional filters to cut down the sort further. Generally speaking, stocks favor continuing in the direction of the gap higher or lower.

You can find out more about Bracket Trades in the video Run the Player at 1.5x      HERE.

Rollback

Walmart’s announcement last night AH of a significant profit shortfall is a reminder that the American consumer is getting crushed. They are trading down and cutting back as food and energy inflation outstrip wage gains. As we roll through earnings season, I expect more of these “shockers”, especially in consumer facing, product-centric, businesses.  We’ve been operating under the assumption that we’ve been in a bear market rally. THe market has been resilient to bad news.  It took the hit from SNAP and now this morning the WMT news has the SPY down 0.35%. We got a long ways to go and many catalysts this week. Keep longs on a short leash and make regular trips to the bank. We’ll see how the mega cap tech earnings go along with the FOMC tomorrow and other macro data points later in the week.   Watch for sympathy moves across retail based on the WMT news.

Indexes

SPY Daily

SPY 1 hour

QQQ Daily

QQQ 1 hour

IWM Daily

IWM 1 hour

 

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As the host of Trader’s Profit Compass, I work hard to inspire, empower, and prepare aspiring traders to face the markets with fortitude, quiet confidence and inner calm. It’s a protein-rich, sugar free environment without ego or judgement. While I can’t promise that joining our group will change your life, I’d like to think it will help your trading. Give it a spin!  Nothing to lose and potentially much to gain.

Our group of aspiring traders are into active swing trading using technical analysis to find objective, high-probability,  low-risk trades.  Using these processes we’ve been fortunate to be winning; not perfect but winning. If that is appealing to you, join us!  I’d like to think you’d benefit from the work.  You’ll get premium  content 6 times a week including a copy of my Daily Profit Compass, Weekend Profit Navigator, along with other actionable content delivered directly to your mailbox. You’ll even get an invite to our new trading room on SLACK.

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