Before the Bell Jul 21

Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA  USO TLT  SQ $NAMO / $NYMO   Strategy Session

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Companion Video 

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.

Find the Video  HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of July 19

  • Monday – Housing Index  IBM after the bell.
  • Tuesday – Housing Starts ; Redbook
  • Wednesday – Oil inventory; 20 yr Bond Auction
  • Thursday – Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed. EIA NatGas Inventories,   KC Fed.   10 yr TIPS Auction.
  • Friday – Flash PMI

Tricky Call:  BUY or FADE

 Monday Rug Pull; Tuesday reflexive bounce.  Now what?  Was Monday the first leg of a bigger down move or was Monday corrective activity on a prior uncorrected move?  I am leaning bullish and staying long.  Here’s why

  • The breadth, and oscillators both bounced but are still at the low end of their ranges and I think therefore favor continued follow through
  • THe prior up move was uncorrected. Nothing grows to the sky without consolidations or pull backs. The tag of the 50 ema was a nice check mark and is a location that has been bought in recent memory. Traders keep doing what has worked in the past. When the 50ema fails, we will know for sure something has changed, but until then I am sticking with what is working.
  • Rotation:  It’s one thing to be long, its another thing to be long the right stuff.  Tech has been working.  IWM is at the bottom of the range and is showing signs of life. If rates stabilize or rise, you want to be in IWM and re-opening, cyclicals, banks, industrials, materials etc.  I am sticking with mega-cap tech into earnings next week.
  • Mega-cap earnings will be a massive inflection point simply because of the cap weighting on the indexes. If the market buys Mega-cap earnings, the next leg higher commences. If the sell it, then at the index level we go lower, BUY keep in mind, as the indexes and tech drift lower in that scenario, the baton may have been passed back tot cyclicals that can be ripping below the surface.
  • Aside from the day to day active trading stuff, we will know a lot more once mega cap tech reports and we see how these big names trade.

FATMAAN Earnings

July 20:  NFLX    July 26: TSLA       July 27: GOOGL / MSFT      July 28: FB / AMZN / AAPL

Breadth and the Oscillators bounce 

The Breadth and the Oscillators bounced but remain at the low end of their ranges. I am favoring continued follow through to the upside. That said, the easy part of the trade was yesterday when the NYMO / NAMO reached extremes. Now we could see more of a grind higher vs a unidirectional move.

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

$IWM 30 Min 

 

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