Tickers discussed: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT NFLX TSLA SMH $USD $TNX TLT USO Trade Ideas
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Earnings
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.25x to reduce run time.
Find the Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of July 12
- Monday – Light….Couple of FOMC speakers
- Tuesday – NFIB Sm. Biz Optimism; CPI ; Redbook; 30yr bond auction
- Wednesday – PPI final; Atlanta Fed Inflation expectations; Oil inventory; Jerome Powell Capitol Hill Noon
- Thursday – Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG; Empire State MFG; Import/ Export numbers; Industrial Production; Jerome Powell Capitol Hill 9.30am; EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Consumer Credit
- Friday – Retail Sales; Business Inventories; Consumer Sentiment
Crayon Eaters Wafflized
Meme stock Traders have taken it on the chin recently. Here is a graphic from Forbes/ Barron’s that shows some of the carnage. But believe me, there’s plenty more that could have been included. I’ve largely steered clear of these battleground names but there are certainly trades to make in the space. Pick objective levels, set stops and respect them. I think that despite losses, these guys will keep trying. Actually i think the strategy is morphing. Some of the newer targets do not have option chains. THis takes market makers jacking option premium to the moon off the table so the dynamic is purely supply and demand.
Looking deeper, the high valuation names within tech are also getting clipped. Names like DOCU, ZM, ROKU and that genre are getting nailed. Solar is also taking a beating. If you participated in the 6 week bounce and booked some nice wins, congrats. Now, either get defensive and step aside, or look for compelling short entries against well defined levels.
FATMAAN Earnings
July 20: NFLX / TSLA July 27: GOOGL / MSFT July 28: FB / AMZN / AAPL
Two Week outlook
I remain bullish the FATMAAN complex into earnings over the next 2 weeks but not blindly so. Watching levels like a hawk. Market breadth continues to deteriorate as evidenced by IWM not being able to catch a bid. So SPY / QQQ are being held together by bubble gum and bailing wire by big cap tech. If big cap falters, expect pain at the index level.
About Bond Rates and TLT
As suspected, rates backed off yesterday, making our long TLT trade work. TLT is up again this morning. So far so good. Let’s see how far they can take it. Details in the video.
A Simple Bull Market / Bull Stock Checklist
Being a fear-monger is popular. Bearish tweets and doomsters are more widely followed than a tweet saying “stay long”. Use this simple checklist to tell if the market or a particular stock you follow is in bull mode. THe list is not intended to be the end-all checklist, but if you find yourself saying yes to most of the questions, you can certainly come out from under your desk and delay subscribing to “Doomsday Prepper” magazine.
- Is Price at an All-time high? All time highs are bullish, not bearish
- Is price above the 8ema and 20ema? Price above the fast moving averages is as bullish as it gets
- Are the ema’s bullishly stacked? if from top to bottom the 8 is above the 20, 20 above the 50 and 50 above the 200 tells you the trend is higher and in bull mode.
- Is the slope of the moving averages positive? If the moving averages are tilted positive and rising; its bullish
- Have any trend lines been violated? Draw a trendline connecting the lows of the recent trend. As long as price stays above, its bullish. If a trendline is broken, pay closer attention.
- Are the indicators operating in their bullish regimes? If RSI is above 50 and PPO momentum is above the zero line, the indicators are bullish..
Use these simple questions to ally any fears you have about the market or favorite stock but confirming it’s bull market status.
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.
SPY 2 hour
SPY 30 min
QQQ 2 hour
QQQ 30 min
IWM 2 hour
$IWM 30 Min
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