Before the Bell Jul 14

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM META AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL  NFLX SMH ARKF ARKG ARKK

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration: The Sword of Clarity

 

 

A nice encapsulation of topics we’ve touched on and addressed literally for years.  Think deeply about the concepts outlined above.  If you take action on these topics, you’ll make a dramatic positive change in your life.

 

 Earnings

Earnings kick off in earnest this week as the big banks begin reporting on Thursday. Watch Taiwan Semi as well on Thursday. Probably the most important semi out there in regards to the global market in semiconductors.

Today’s Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video HERE      Will Return

Macro Data Releases Week of  July 11

  • Monday – 3yr bond auction 1pm; FOMC Williams 2pm
  • Tuesday – NFIB Small biz survey; Barkin 12.30; 10 yr bonds 1pm
  • Wednesday – CPI inflation 8.30; Atlanta Fed 10.30; Oil inv; 30 yr bonds 1pm; Beige Book 2pm
  • Thursday – Jobless claims; PPI final; NatGas inv;
  • Friday – Retail Sales; Empire MFG; Import/ Export prices; Industrial Production; Business inventories; UoM Consumer sentiment July OPEX

Macro Framework Spring / Summer 2022

Find the Blog Post HERE

Earnings Season & Bracket Trades

As earnings season kicks into gear, a reminder that this is prime time for Bracket Trades. Bracket Trades are those trades created when a stock gaps up or down from a news driven event. Bracket Trades are set up as “2nd day trades” where you alarm the high and low of the prior day’s trading range, then patiently wait for price to either break lower or higher from the range.  You then follow price out of the range. I will do my best to help identify them for you, but you can easily find them yourself by doing a sort for “GAP ups” and “GAP Down” on your trading platform.  I add additional filters for only stocks above $10 and at least 500,000 shares traded. You can add additional filters to cut down the sort further. Generally speaking, stocks favor continuing in the direction of the gap higher or lower.

You can find out more about Bracket Trades in the video Run the Player at 1.5x      HERE.

ARK Tickers of Interest

$ARKF – Fintech

Price has been consolidating within a narrow range between 16.20 – $16.45.  I think traders can look for long entries while price lies above trend at $15.8.  THat said a break below $15.80 being short would be favored.

$ARKG – Genomics

Price within a nice, well defined channel so active traders can trade within the channel using the support and resistance levels shown. A break of trend and a move below $35.50 opens the door for a move lower and thus favors being short.


$ARKK – Flagship

Traders can be long above $43.5 but if price breaks below trend support at $43.5, then it becomes a short.  Note the recent false breakout above $45.50 followed by a return to the old trading range. That is a bearish move that implies that if support fails at $43.50 a move to “the bottom of the box” at $36.50 would be favored.

Mega-Cap Tech

$META 

Price is trapped in a wide trading range between $155 – $172.  I like being short below $162 and long above $165.   THe range between $162-$165 will likely be choppy.

$AAPL

Price within a clearly defined uptrend. Plenty of room to trade both the long and short side within the range. A break below $142.50 and the channel, traders should shift the focus to being short as lower prices would be favored

$TSLA

There is a solid zone of support between $690 – $700. A break of $690 favors a move to $665.

$MSFT

A messy chart featuring a clear double top at $268 followed by a fast rug pull.  Use $253 as your pivot. Stay / get short below it. THe structure of the double top and the measured move projection favors a move to $242.

$AMZN

$110 is the clear pivot point.   Long above, short below. THe levels shown have been working really well.

$GOOGL

Price has been moving quickly in both directions offering nice rewards if you catch it right. Today, $2220 is the pivot.  Bulls do not want to see the brown uptrend line violated to the downside.

$NFLX

Price in a choppy consolidation. Probably easier and cleaner names to try and trade, but the levels below will be helpful if you give it a shot. At any rate, alarm $170 for a potential downside break to retest the lows at $164.

$SMH

Price filled the lower gap yesterday so I removed it. Overall, semis have been weak.  On a break below $202.50, get short with an eye on the prior low down at $192.50. Bulls are looking for a gap fill above and then a break above $208 to get something going.

Indexes

SPY Daily

SPY 1 hour

QQQ Daily

QQQ 1 hour

IWM Daily

IWM 1 hour

 

 

 

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