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Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Inspiration: Realistic Expectations
Trading is tough business. It will take time to learn the craft and become consistently profitable. Instead of becoming frustrated with unrealistic expectations, set yourself a multitude of smaller intermediate goals along the path. That way you’ll know you are making progress and your confidence will grow as you make progress. I think this idea is even more important now than in years past. The Fed money printing made it easy for many to throw darts and get bailed out again and again. Now the regime is different and market conditions have become tougher. Setting realistic expectations will make a huge difference in your trading psychology.
Earnings
Earnings kick off in earnest this week as the big banks begin reporting on Thursday. Watch Taiwan Semi as well on Thursday. Probably the most important semi out there in regards to the global market in semiconductors.
Today’s Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
Find the Companion Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of July 11
- Monday – 3yr bond auction 1pm; FOMC Williams 2pm
- Tuesday – NFIB Small biz survey; Barkin 12.30; 10 yr bonds 1pm
- Wednesday – CPI inflation 8.30; Atlanta Fed 10.30; Oil inv; 30 yr bonds 1pm; Beige Book 2pm
- Thursday – Jobless claims; PPI final; NatGas inv;
- Friday – Retail Sales; Empire MFG; Import/ Export prices; Industrial Production; Business inventories; UoM Consumer sentiment July OPEX
Earnings Kickoff
Lots of macro data points this week ( CPI / Inflation wed; Jobless Claims THursday; Retail Sales & Industrial Production Friday) plus earnings kick off with the big banks on Thursday. The key to the future direction of the market will be if we see a bunch of downward revisions in earnings. THat would likely open the door to another leg down if companies are reporting weak results and weak forward guidance.
Macro Framework Spring / Summer 2022
Find the Blog Post HERE
Earnings Season & Bracket Trades
As earnings season kicks into gear, a reminder that this is prime time for Bracket Trades. Bracket Trades are those trades created when a stock gaps up or down from a news driven event. Bracket Trades are set up as “2nd day trades” where you alarm the high and low of the prior day’s trading range, then patiently wait for price to either break lower or higher from the range. You then follow price out of the range. I will do my best to help identify them for you, but you can easily find them yourself by doing a sort for “GAP ups” and “GAP Down” on your trading platform. I add additional filters for only stocks above $10 and at least 500,000 shares traded. You can add additional filters to cut down the sort further. Generally speaking, stocks favor continuing in the direction of the gap higher or lower.
You can find out more about Bracket Trades in the video Run the Player at 1.5x HERE.
Market Metrics
Indexes
SPY Daily
SPY 1 hour
QQQ Daily
QQQ 1 hour
IWM Daily
IWM 1 hour
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