Before the Bell Jan 14

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH MMM AFRM CROX COST DDD CCL MAR  Steel Sector

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration – Conquer destructive emotions

Identify & Conquer destructive emotions.  Over time, if they become a habit, Destructive emotions can destroy your life.   Same is true in trading.  Failed traders usually are traders that never dealt with the destructive actions / emotions / reactivities that undercut their performance on a daily basis. Identify them and address them because if you ignore them they’ll repeatedly come back to haunt you.

 

Earnings 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x- 1.5x to reduce run time without loss of clarity.

Find the Video   HERE   

Macro Data Releases Week of Jan 10

  • Monday – Wholesale Inventories; Bostic
  • Tuesday – NFIB index; Redbook; Ester George.   Jerome Powell nomination hearing
  • Wednesday – Mortgage applications; CPI 8.30am; Atlanta Fed Inflation 10am; Oil inventories; 10yr Bond Auction 1pm; Beige Book 2pm
  • Thursday – Harker, PPI final; Jobless Claims, Brainerd; NatGas inv; Charles Evans; 30 yr bond auction; Fed Balance sheet
  • Friday – Retail Sales; Import/Export Prices; Ind. Production; Business Inventories; Consumer Sentiment; John Williams

Cross Currents

We’ve talked about the strong sector rotation afoot in the market ………..mass exodus from Bubble / Ponzi sectors into real-world companies with pricing power and the commodity complex. But there are other cross currents as well that is emerging.  THis factoid I ran across from SAXO Bank caught my eye. Hedge Funds / Institutions are selling just as Retail is Buying. To me, this is another way of saying Distribution is underway. Distribution is the process of institutions offloading shares to retail.  I think the table shows the rotation underway.   It may sound simplistic, but going forward, buy stuff that is working and sell stuff that isnt.   I’ve notice some traders trying to fight the tape. That is, trying to pick bottoms in junk that has fallen a lot. THat, in general, is a losing strategies.  BUY 52 week highs; SELL 52 week lows.  Be aware of the shift that is underway.

 

Market Insights

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

Reminder: Monday is a holiday w/ the market close. How we close the week will be an important tell on market risk sentiment.

SPY Daily

Bulls gotta hold the 50ema period.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ Daily

Price was rejected by the 50ema. Bulls need to recapture the box at $380 to stop the bleeding.

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM Daily

Price remains below all moving averages including the 200ema and is the weakest of the indexes. A first positive step would be to reclaim the 200ema. While below price remains open for a retest of the bottom of the range at 210.

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

 

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