Before the Bell Jan 11

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH XBI

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration – Write it down

“The faintest ink is more powerful than the strongest memory”                              Chinese Proverb

A few days ago I was in the mood for some chili so I set about the task.  There wasn’t a need to pull the recipe…..after all, I’d made it dozens of times. One of the critical elements of any chili is the spice mix. 2 main ingredients are cumin and chili powder. As I pulled together the blend, I confidently added the quantities to the onions I had sweating down in the pot. My first hit of the problem was the color. Not a deep red but more of a yellow. The aroma was off too.  I soon figured out that the quantities i used for the cumin and chili powder were inverted.  Now because I caught the mistake in time, my chili wasn’t ruined but easily could have been.  Having the recipe close at hand would have avoided lots of aggravation and lost time.

In Trading we always talk about our trading plan(s).  For those that make trading plans, I’d venture to guess that quite a number dont bother to write down the script or decision tree for that plan on paper. The levels, the planned actions you want to take at each level. The conditions that would lead you not to make a trade. How much you’ll risk etc.   Once the day starts, traders tend to freelance and within the fog of war, shit happens. Unlike screwing up a spice mix for dinner, trading mistakes usually are expensive.  Write down your trading plan; Not fancy, but clear and concise.  Follow the script during the day.  Execute Execute Execute.  If at the end of the day, if things don’t work out, you can work on developing a crisper plan. That can only be done if you’ve written the plan down to begin with.

Earnings 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x- 1.5x to reduce run time without loss of clarity.

 Find the Video   HERE    

 

Macro Data Releases Week of Jan 10

  • Monday – Wholesale Inventories; Bostic
  • Tuesday – NFIB index; Redbook; Ester George.   Jerome Powell nomination hearing
  • Wednesday – Mortgage applications; CPI; Atlanta Fed Inflation; Oil inventories; 10yr Bond Auction; Beige Book
  • Thursday – Harker, PPI final; Jobless Claims, Brainerd; NatGas inv; Charles Evans; 30 yr bond auction; Fed Balance sheet
  • Friday – Retail Sales; Import/Export Prices; Ind. Production; Business Inventories; Consumer Sentiment; John Williams

Monster Bounce

A big bounce off of yesterday’s lows have given bulls life. Now its all about follow through to see how much power is left. THat said, look at the postures of the indexes and FATMAAN names.  QQQ / IWM still look bearish.  Be sure you understand if you are playing a counter-trend bounce or trading with the trend.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY Daily

The Bulls came up with a stick save by reclaiming the 50ema after taking a look below. Therefore the sell signal was averted. That said, bulls need to remain cautious with price below the 8 and 20 ema’s.

SPY 2 hour

Active traders can be long over 466 looking for 470. If price moves back below the 50ema then bears will re-assert control.

SPY 30 min

QQQ Daily

Reclaiming $380 would be a big technical accomplishment for the bulls but keep in mind price is below the 8,20,and 50 emas and therefore the posture remains bearish despite the nice bounce.

QQQ 2 hour

Active traders can be long over $380. THat $380 is a big big level. Use it as your key pivot.

QQQ 30 min

IWM Daily

All bearish as price is below all the moving averages including the 200ema. I expect price to find $210 at the bottom of the box in the days ahead.

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

 

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