Before the Bell Feb 11

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH NAMO  $TNX TLT

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Inspiration – Forget bad moves

Do your best to set aside any bad moves that may happen and begin each trade anew.  Each trade is independent of one another.  Avoid the revenge trade mentality of trying to either catch up with the money or catch up with diminish pride after a bad trade. THose emotions build losing streaks and heartbreaking P&L drawdowns.

Earnings

 

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at  1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.

Find the Companion Video HERE 

Macro Data Releases Week of Feb 7

  • Monday – Nothing of Consequence
  • Tuesday – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; International Trade; Redbook;
  • Wednesday – Mortgage Applications; wholesale inventories prelim; Oil inventories; 2 FOMC speakers; 10yr Note Auction
  • Thursday –  CPI; Jobless Claims; NatGas Inv.;  30 yr bond auction 1pm
  • Friday – Consumer Sentiment

Apocalypse Now

After the hot CPI print showing 7.5% YoY inflation, FOMC Governor Jim Bullard comes out firing at mid day with a panicky – feeling statement saying we need to raise rates by 50bps in March and then wanted 100bps in the bad by July 1. The market didnt like that and we closed near the lows of the session. Now this morning, other FOMC members are out saying not to interpret Bullard’s comments  as representing their view.   There are also rumors floating around that there may be an emergency rate rise either today, over the weekend, or Monday.  Time will tell.

An interesting thing about inflation is that much of it is supply driven.  The commodity complex is ripping across the board.  Is a rate increase going to reduce the cost of coffee, corn, oil or copper?  Dont think it works that way. So there is the very real risk that the Fed ends up slamming the breaks on the economy but the drivers of inflation keep rising.

 

Oscillator Update – 

$NAMO works again, like it always does. This time a single tag of 60 reversed price. At the very least these oscillators let you know it’s time to take your foot off the gas, tighten stops and head to the bank with positions with embedded gains.

$NYMO 

Extreme-O-Meter  Put / Call Ratio

Still not seeing any extreme call buying; usually the market wont allow a loaded boat full of Puts to win so easily.

 

Commodities and ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )

  • Fun Fact:  Remember the $147 high for oil in 2007?   Well, if you inflation adjust that number to 2022, that number is $220.  Remember that number.
  • Yesterday, Scotland initiated Energy Stimmies. 
  • Video on Coffee Fundamentals Video.  ( 7min )   3mo old but the market dynamics are in place   Find it HERE

 

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

QQQ 2 hour

QQQ 30 min

IWM 2 hour

IWM 30 min

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As the host of Trader’s Profit Compass, I work hard to inspire, empower, and prepare aspiring traders to face the markets with fortitude, quiet confidence and inner calm. It’s a protein-rich, sugar free environment without ego or judgement. While I can’t promise that joining our group will change your life, I’d like to think it will help your trading. Give it a spin!  Nothing to lose and potentially much to gain.

Our group of aspiring traders are into active swing trading using technical analysis to find objective, high-probability,  low-risk trades.  Using these processes we’ve been fortunate to be winning; not perfect but winning. If that is appealing to you, join us!  I’d like to think you’d benefit from the work.  You’ll get premium  content 6 times a week including a copy of my Daily Profit Compass, Weekend Profit Navigator, along with other actionable content delivered directly to your mailbox. You’ll even get an invite to our new trading room on SLACK.

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