Tickers: SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA MSFT AMZN GOOGL NFLX SMH NAMO PUT-CALL Ratio
Before the Bell is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.
Inspiration – Hold no Opinion
Once glance at TWTR tells you lots of people have opinions and are glad to tell them to you. Holding onto opinions as a trader is foolish but also very expensive. Be careful labelling yourself as either a bull or a bear. Once you self identify as something, you’re automatically limited. You will be blinded by what you say you are and find it hard to see the facts change. For traders, its best to let your positions speak for your self . I am long XYZ sector but also short ABC sector. Bulls AND bears can make money at the same time. Stay Flexible.
Earnings
Companion Video
The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed. Run the video at 1.5x to maximize efficiency without loss of clarity.
Find the Companion Video HERE
Macro Data Releases Week of Feb 7
- Monday – Nothing of Consequence
- Tuesday – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; International Trade; Redbook;
- Wednesday – Mortgage Applications; wholesale inventories prelim; Oil inventories; 2 FOMC speakers; 10yr Note Auction
- Thursday – CPI; Jobless Claims; NatGas Inv.; 30 yr bond auction 1pm
- Friday – Consumer Sentiment
Inflation: How Bad?
While I care about inflation in my “real life” for my “trading life” I care most about the market reaction. As you’ll see in the video and supporting info below, my baseline case is that we are in a bear market rally. While that there are yellow flags signaling the bounce may be fading, the market positioning leads me to believe that the market will grind higher to squeeze out more shorts and convince the masses that this rally is “the real deal” . Let’s see how the market handles the CPI print at 8.30 this morning.
Oscillator Update –
$NAMO comes in Hot and warrants caution as it tags the low side of overbought. Keep your tech longs on a short leash.
$NYMO is still contained in the upper half of the range.
Checking in on the Extreme-O-Meter Put / Call Ratio
We’ve just come off a period where everyone piled in PUTs in that last rug pull and also in subsequent weeks. Now as we bounce you can see we’ve had no occurrences of the ratio going into overbought going above the red line. In my experience, this is not the condition for a rug pull. Why? Not enough sheep in the long boat and those that are look well-hedged. I think the market has more short squeezing to do.
Market Breadth Update
Breadth has significantly improved during this bounce phase. One thing nice is that no sector, at least by this metric, is in the danger zone. Getting closer but not quite there yet.
Commodities and ESG ( Energy Stops Growing )
Energy Stimmies – Coming to America in 2022?
Japan announced that they’re bumping up their gas subsidies. In the UK and other Euro select countries, they are already sending out checks to help cover utility costs that have spiraled out of control since experiencing a “down-year in Wind”. I am wondering what the pain point is here in the US for gas before the natives hit the streets with pitchforks? Here in FL where I live it’s $3.55. I am guessing that the low grumbling increases to noise as we break over $4. Over $5 nationwide and we’ll all be in the streets.
Big Inventory Draw in Cushing Yesterday
Uranium is waking up. CCJ / URA / UUUU / etc Worth a look
INDEX CHARTS
A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.
SPY 2 hour
SPY 30 min
QQQ 2 hour
QQQ 30 min
IWM 2 hour
IWM 30 min
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