Before the Bell Dec 3

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA  AAPL AMZN NFLX GOOGL SMH ARKF ARKG ARKK ARKW DOCU

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Although earnings season is on the downhill, lots of interesting and important names this week including CRM, ZS, OKTA, SPLK, SNOW, CRWD, DG, DOCU, ULTA, OLLI, HIBB, BIG, FIVE, VEEV, PVH

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x- 1.5x to reduce run time without loss of clarity.

Find the video HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of November 29

  • Monday – Pending home sales; Dallas Fed MFG survey
  • Tuesday – Redbook, Case-Shiller, House Price index, Chicago Fed, Consumer Confidence, JPOW speech w/ Yellen 10am
  • Wednesday – ADP / PMI / ISM / Construction Spending, Oil inv.  Beige Book JPOW part 2
  • Thursday – Auto Sales; Challenger Job cuts; Jobless Claims; NatGas inv  OPEC+
  • Friday – Jobs Report; Factory Orders; ISM Services

Destruction under the Surface

While the top line indices SPY and QQQ remain near ATH’s, THe average stock via IWM has been whacked 20% while Bubble stocks with ultra high valuations have been slaughtered by 40% or more. Just last night DOCU was hit 30% for a guidance miss.  I say all this because the mega cap tech names are dancing precariously on the edge of disaster with literally all names sitting near key support.  It wouldnt take much to knock these over.  Even if you dont trade them, watch FATMAAN closely in the days / weeks ahead.

$VIX Elevated and the Oscillators $NYMO / $NAMO  remain oversold

Despite yesterday’s big move higher, the VIX remains elevated showing that traders are still relatively skittish. Being Friday its an important day to watch price action as we head into the weekend to gauge risk sentiment heading into next week. We still have omicron headline risk and 2 weeks to wait until the next FOMC meeting to see if announcements are made to maintain the current taper or to accelerate it as has been signaled by Fed Governors and even Powell himself. .

Despite Thursday’s rip, NYMO and NAMO remain very low and near oversold levels. Typically from this low position you see advances but it does not mean it has to happen in a straight line. We could, and most likely will, see elevated chop into the FOMC meeting in 2 weeks.

Percent below the 20ema still leaning oversold.

$DOCU Disaster sets up as an appealing bracket trade for next week

The 30% drop on earnings last night sends $DOCU price into no man’s land with little support either above or below price. THis is a nice set up for a bracket trade because price may most fast in either direction due to lack of technical support or resistance near the current price.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY Daily

Price held the key 450 level and reclaimed the 50ema…both positive developments.  THat said, traders need to remain tactically defensive with price below both the 8 and 20 emas.

SPY 2 hour

 

QQQ 2 hour

A weaker bounce than the broader market with FATMAAN names particularly weak. Price needs to reclaim the breakdown candle high at 401 to get on technically firmer ground.

QQQ 30 min

Not a prediction, but recognize the classic bear flag pattern. A price break back below 388 would likely trigger the structure and point to lower prices.

IWM Daily

IWM 2 hour

 

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