Before the Bell Dec 2

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Tickers:  SPY QQQ IWM FB AAPL TSLA  AAPL AMZN NFLX GOOGL SMH ARKF ARKG ARKK ARKW

Before the Bell  is premarket prep for active traders. The note provides detailed stock market technical analysis focused on the indexes and FAAMGs. Key levels and trading locations are provided, along with trading plans and timely commentary to keep you on the right side of the trade.

Earnings 

Although earnings season is on the downhill, lots of interesting and important names this week including CRM, ZS, OKTA, SPLK, SNOW, CRWD, DG, DOCU, ULTA, OLLI, HIBB, BIG, FIVE, VEEV, PVH

Companion Video  

The video is a detailed technical review of the indexes and FATMAAN names. All the key trading levels are identified along with commentary and trade plans for each ticker. Trade ideas are also discussed.  Run the video at 1.25x- 1.5x to reduce run time without loss of clarity.

Find the video HERE

 

Macro Data Releases Week of November 29

  • Monday – Pending home sales; Dallas Fed MFG survey
  • Tuesday – Redbook, Case-Shiller, House Price index, Chicago Fed, Consumer Confidence, JPOW speech w/ Yellen 10am
  • Wednesday – ADP / PMI / ISM / Construction Spending, Oil inv.  Beige Book JPOW part 2
  • Thursday – Auto Sales; Challenger Job cuts; Jobless Claims; NatGas inv  OPEC+
  • Friday – Jobs Report; Factory Orders; ISM Services

Mass Exodus

Yesterday JPOW pivoted from “transitory inflation” to “inflation will be with us a while”.  To further complicate matters, he hinted that the FOMC may decide to accelerate the taper in order to finish the asset purchase program a couple of months sooner. That policy shift pulled the rug on equities and nose – dived bond rates.   THe media wants you to believe Omicron variant played a role in the decline. I dont buy it.  I want to fade Covid fear.  The Doctor that discovered the variant said the symptoms were quite mild.  So for me, Omicron fear is being manufactured.  Yesterdays lows now give us a great line in the sand to go long against.  I think traders will buy the dip and that the market makes a bullish run into years end. If we break the lows and we head lower I will be proven wrong.

$VIX and the Oscillators $NYMO / $NAMO  hit extremes

Yesterday’s dramatic reversal of fortune saw the VIX jump from the mid 22’s to 31 and marking the highest close in nearly a year. I dont think this level will prove to be sustainable and will be watching for a break back below 29 and a move toward 25.

As Tuesday’s trade came to a close we imagined that the oversold oscillators favored a bounce. Well we got that in morning trade with a broad-based rally but as price hit resistance it was met with heavy afternoon selling that buried the close. So here again i favor a bounce with the oscillators at extremes.

INDEX CHARTS

A detailed walk-through of the levels and trading strategy for the indexes is given in the video ( link above) . The static charts are provided for reference. The FATMAAN names are also reviewed in the video along with trade ideas and other charts of interest.

SPY Daily

Price needs to hold $450 or else a quick drop to 435 would be expected.

SPY 2 hour

SPY 30 min

In looking at yesterdays  price action there were 3 distinct locations for selling or at the very least getting out of long positioning.

QQQ Daily

The real line in the sand is at the prior high near 382. Losing the prior high would be a very bearish technical event.

QQQ 2 hour

IWM Daily

Focus on 210. A break below would target 190 on a measured move basis. More importantly it would mark a structural top in this sector after spending a year between 210 and 232

 

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